For 88% of voters who declare their vote for (), the senator should continue in the race for the Presidency despite the revelations of the “” case.
This is what a survey carried out on May 20th and 21st with 2,004 interviewees in 139 cities shows. The margin of error in the survey, registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-07489/2026, is plus or minus two points.
Since last week, when the website Intercept Brasil had asked the then banker for money, the senator’s campaign has gone into crisis with successive contradictory versions of what happened.
Vorcaro, now in prison, commanded , the liquidated institution at the center of the biggest scandal in the financial sector in history. His network of political contacts is the subject of investigation.
Flávio charged the then banker last year about the financing promised for the production of the film “Dark Horse” (underdog, in English), about the campaign of his father, the former president, now in prison for an attempted coup.
He admitted the request in the episode. He only said later that he had met Vorcaro in person, when he had already been arrested.
In this round, Datafolha shows that the vote of Jair Bolsonaro’s firstborn son: in the first round simulation, he went from 35% to 31%, and in the second, from 45% to 43%.
His main rival, the president (PT), fluctuated upwards in both scenarios, 38% to 40% and 45% to 47%, respectively.
Despite the political disarray, the bulk of the Bolsonarista electorate supported the pre-candidate, which may not be enough in a dispute that promises to be decided by the mechanical eye.
According to Datafolha, 72% of those who declared their vote for the senator knew about the case, above the 64% measured in the entire sample. In the first group, 38% say they are well informed about the situation. In the second, 30% say this.
For 54% of Flávio’s voters, his relationship with Vorcaro is close, but 73% say he continues to have their trust. For 53%, the senator did the right thing by asking the then banker for money — who put R$61 million into the film’s production.
The numbers contrast with those of the electorate in general, with the exception of trust: 67% said that nothing had changed. But 48% say that the senator should resign from his candidacy and 64% say that he acted badly in the episode.
In the event that the senator leaves the race, (PL) appears as the favorite name to succeed him in the electronic ballot box. Among Flávio’s voters, 60% have her as their first alternative. The number drops to 39% among all respondents.
Among those voting for Flávio, the next option is the impeached deputy and brother of senator Eduardo (PL-SP), with 15% of citations, and the former governors (Novo-MG, 13%) and (-GO, 10%), both pre-candidates already.
In the wider public, the names mentioned are the same, but Zema and Caiado tie with 17%, while Eduardo scores 10%.
