The conflict between the United States and Iran has accumulated so much back and forth since April that much of the public stopped following it. This Saturday (23), Trump stated that he will decide by tomorrow whether to resume military attacks against Tehran or sign an agreement to end the conflict. On the Iranian side, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed that the parties are in the final phase of a memorandum of understanding. Whether this time the outcome will be different, the next few days will answer.
“I think one of two things will happen: either I destroy them, or we will sign a deal that is good,”
What happened so far
The United States attacked Iran’s main nuclear facilities throughout April, destroying the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan complexes. A ceasefire came into force at the beginning of the month and remains in effect. What is being negotiated now is how to transform this truce into a formal document, called a memorandum of understanding, which would pave the way for a broader treaty.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmael Baghaei confirmed this Saturday that the country is in the final phase of discussions on this memorandum with the United States.
What’s on the table
Mediators say they are close to reaching an agreement to extend the ceasefire between the two countries for 60 days, according to a report by Financial Times published this Saturday.
The agreement covers the cessation of hostilities, the end of American naval aggression and the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad.
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According to sources heard by FTthe text would also include a commitment to discuss the handover of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and sanctions relief. After signing, nations would have between 30 and 60 days to negotiate the terms of a more comprehensive treaty.
Two sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters that the Iranians and Pakistanis presented a revised proposal to the US this Saturday.
Main obstacle
The central node remains the nuclear program. Trump demands that Iran hand over its stockpile of around 440 kg of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade level and definitively abandon its ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a visit to India, reiterated the American position: “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.”
On the Iranian side, sources heard by FT indicate that Tehran would “probably be ready to give up more on nuclear energy, but will not do so while the war is ongoing.” Baghaei also cited the history of “contradictory statements and shifting positions on the American side” as reason for caution.
Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, left Tehran on Saturday after trying to hammer out final terms with local officials and said there had been “encouraging progress towards a final understanding.”
Qatari mediators also participated in the talks throughout Thursday and Friday, maintaining contact with American envoy Steve Witkoff. A diplomat informed about the process summarized the moment to the FT: “The agreement seems to be going in the right direction. It is with the Americans now for review.”
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Market remains skeptical
The market still appears not to have bought into the new hope accordingly. Most of the references are closed for trading this Saturday, but the few assets on the air do not signal optimism.
Bitcoin () continues the downward movement that was already observed during the week and is traded at US$75,300, a decline of 2% in 24 hours. Synthetic WTI oil contracts, which operate with low liquidity on the Hyperliquid platform, changed little compared to the closing of futures on Friday (22).
What happens now
Trump’s agenda this Saturday includes a meeting with Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with the expected presence of Vice President JD Vance, as well as a conference call with leaders of Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. Rubio signaled that an announcement could come this weekend: “It is possible that, whether today, tomorrow or in a few days, we will have something to announce.”
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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Saturday that Iran had rebuilt its military capabilities during the ceasefire and warned that if the US resumed attacks, the consequences would be more “devastating and bitter” than before.
(with Reuters and Axios)
