When the polls opened in October 2018, a succession of surprises in the states meant that 46 of the 54 vacancies up for grabs were , 10 of which were names without a previous career in elected office.
Eight years after the anti-political wave that rose with his candidacy for President, the senators elected in that election reach the end of their term in a challenging scenario.
Survey of Sheet points out that 18 of the 54 senators whose term ends in 2027 have announced that they will not run for re-election. Another 3 remain with the situation undefined and 33 will try to renew their mandate, some of them facing difficulties in their states.
The will be renewed in two thirds, with the election of two senators in each federation unit. This year, the dispute will have strategic weight amid a scenario of tensions between the Executive, Congress and Judiciary.
The senator () works to expand the conservative bench with a view to confronting the STF (Supreme Federal Court), while the president () tries to contain the advance of the most radical wing of Bolsonarism with his own candidacies and alliances in the states.
In addition to being a priority for the two main candidates for Planalto, the election for the Senate mobilizes the party machines, which arrive strengthened compared to 2018.
The advancement of parliamentary amendments and the protagonism of the Senate, which rejected a nomination for STF minister for the first time in 132 years, are factors that fuel the dispute.
“The movement of opinion that marked 2018 was strong and boosted candidates without an established political career. Now, party structure, financing and alignment with strong candidacies are once again decisive”, assesses political scientist Vitor Sandes, professor at UFPI (Federal University of Piauí).
He states that the institutional profile of the Senate makes it difficult for parliamentarians without a solid political base to remain. Therefore, candidates with regional networks and administrative experience tend to be favored.
Voting intention polls point in this direction, with favoritism among former governors, former senators who are trying to return to the Legislative House and politicians associated with Lula and Bolsonaro.
Names elected for the first time in 2018 face difficulties in forming alliances for re-election. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE), rapporteur of the CPI on Organized Crime, was announced on the ticket of the governor of Sergipe, Fábio Mitidieri (), but was passed over to make way for PT senator Rogério Carvalho.
Surprises in Espírito Santo in 2018, Fabiano Contarato (PT) and (Avante) will have the challenge of going head to head with experienced names such as former governors Renato Casagrande () and Paulo Hartung (PSD).
Soraya Thronicke (PSB), who gained national prominence in the 2022 presidential election, lost political space in Mato Grosso do Sul after breaking with Bolsonaro and is trying to rebuild herself as Lula’s ally in a majority Bolsonarist state.
She states that, despite the polarized political environment, voters began to demand greater capacity for dialogue and balance: “It is with this work, with this experience built throughout my term and with the willingness to continue presenting results that I intend to seek reelection.”
Senators such as (PSB-GO), Oriovisto Guimarães (PSDB-PR) and Mara Gabrilli (PSD-SP), all elected to the position for the first time eight years ago, will not run for re-election.
When announcing his withdrawal from the dispute for elective mandates, Kajuru complained about the “lack of recognition” of the Goiás electorate. Mara Gabrilli said she would leave Brasília to run for state deputy.
On the other hand, some of the senators at the end of their term are trying to achieve higher goals, such as Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic. Four others are running for state governments, but only Marcos Rogério (PL), who is running in Rondônia, enters the campaign as favorite.
Izalci (PL) and Jayme Campos () face internal party disputes to run, respectively, for the governments of the Federal District and Mato Grosso. Senator Eduardo Girão faces isolation after part of the right supports (PSDB) in Ceará.
Even experienced politicians face uncertainty. President of the Senate between 2021 and 2025, (PSB-MG) signals to leave politics, although he remains under pressure from Palácio do Planalto to run for government of Minas Gerais.
In Ceará, senator Cid Gomes (PSB) nominated federal deputy Júnior Mano (PSB) to run for the Senate on the ticket of governor Elmano de Freitas (PT), but allies are still trying to convince him to seek re-election.
Deans such as Paulo Paim (PT-RS) and Jader Barbalho (MDB-PA) announced their retirement from the polls. Paim opens space for the candidacy of federal deputy Paulo Pimenta (PT). In Jader’s case, the withdrawal benefits his son, former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB).
Party fragmentation in the Senate, which reduced throughout the term and is expected to maintain the same trend in the election. In total, 20 parties elected representatives in 2018, a number that dropped to 13 among senators reaching the end of their term.
