Three months after the American attacks were launched against him, he is facing every American president’s worst nightmare: having recorded emphatic military successes in the field, but being led to an unprecedented strategic and geopolitical defeat.
Despite repeated US strikes, the theocratic regime in Tehran remains standing, its refusal of nuclear concessions steadfast and .
Trump’s repeated claims of total dominance now ring hollow for analysts, as Washington is caught between fragile diplomacy and the threat of new conflicts that would trigger Iranian retaliation across the Middle East. Is Trump losing the war, asks Reuters in his analysis.
The danger for the White House is now visible: the US and its Gulf Arab allies may emerge weakened from the crisis, while Iran, though financially strapped, gains stronger diplomatic footing having proven it can cripple a fifth of the world’s fuel supply.
Although some experts are leaving , top diplomats warn that a war designed as a short-term triumph for Trump is turning into a long-term strategic fiasco.
Political Pressure, Fuel and the Dam of Midterms
This deadlock hits hard for the American President, who is known for his extreme sensitivity to the image of the loser.
For this reason, he appears determined to refuse any compromise that would look like a retreat or a revival of Obama’s nuclear deal from 2015, which he himself had canceled. For her part, White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales insists that “Operation Epic Rage” has achieved all of its military objectives and that the President is holding all the cards in his hands.
However, the reality on the domestic front is different. Trump is under intense pressure from high gas prices and low approval ratings to choose to launch an unpopular war just ahead of crucial midterm elections in November, where the Republican Party is fighting for control of Congress.
Six weeks after the ceasefire began, analysts say the President has a choice between a flawed deal or a new military escalation. If diplomacy breaks down, the scenario of short but heavy blows is being considered to declare a “final victory” and change the agenda, perhaps turning attention to Cuba.
But such a move carries the risk of further underestimating the conditions, with White House officials already privately admitting that Trump mistakenly believed the Iran operation would be as simple as toppling Venezuela’s president last January.
In contrast, the President’s supporters, such as Alexander Gray, deny that the strategy is deadlocked, stressing that the destruction of Iranian infrastructure is a success that has removed the Gulf states from China’s influence. Still, Trump’s nervousness is palpable as he attacks the media for treason when the war has already lasted twice the six-week limit he set when he began operations with Israel on February 28.
The conflict timeline and the communication game
At the start of operations, US airstrikes succeeded in neutralizing much of Iran’s ballistic arsenal and navy, killing top regime officials.
But Tehran responded immediately, blocking the Straits of Hormuz, skyrocketing energy prices and launching attacks against Israel and neighboring states. Trump’s subsequent naval blockade of Iranian ports also failed to soften Tehran’s resistance.
Iranian leaders are responding to Trump’s triumphant claims with their own propaganda, portraying the American campaign as a crushing defeat, though it is clear that they too are exaggerating their military capabilities.
The conflict timeline and the communication game
At the start of operations, US airstrikes succeeded in neutralizing much of Iran’s ballistic arsenal and navy, killing top regime officials.
But Tehran responded immediately, blocking the Straits of Hormuz, skyrocketing energy prices and launching attacks against Israel and neighboring states. Trump’s subsequent naval blockade of Iranian ports also failed to soften Tehran’s resistance.
Iranian leaders are responding to Trump’s triumphant claims with their own propaganda, portraying the American campaign as a crushing defeat, though it is clear that they too are exaggerating their military capabilities.
Unfulfilled goals and the next day
Washington’s original goals—that is, definitively blocking Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, ending its threat to the region, and overthrowing the regime—remain completely unfulfilled.
Analysts point out that Tehran already considers it a success that it withstood the US attack and realized the power it can exert on global shipping trade, showing confidence that it can withstand economic warfare more than Trump can withstand political pressure.
Most importantly, Iran’s nuclear program remains active. Enriched uranium has been buried in safe locations since last June’s bombings and can be retrieved at any time to make a bomb. In fact, Iran’s supreme leader has issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of this material abroad. So instead of being prevented, the war might prompt Iran to accelerate the acquisition of a nuclear weapon to shield itself, following the example of North Korea.
At the same time, Tehran continues to support its armed satellite organizations, while Trump now faces a new, even more hard-line Iranian leadership, which maintains enough missiles and drones to threaten its neighbors.
On the diplomatic front, the damage to the US extends to relations with traditional European allies, who have refused to help in a war they were never asked about. At the same time, China and Russia learned valuable lessons about the US military’s weaknesses in the face of asymmetric tactics and the depletion of its weapons stockpile.
As historian Robert Kagan has pointed out, the outcome of this war threatens to be a far more decisive blow to US international prestige than the humiliating withdrawals from Vietnam or Afghanistan, as this conflict is being waged at the heart of global geopolitical competition, with no going back.
