“Itamaraty only gives votes in Burundi”, says the aphorism attributed to Ulysses Guimarães (1916-1992). The quote from the former president of the Constituent Assembly to the distant African country summarizes a thought that has flourished as a consensus since redemocratization: foreign policy does not influence elections in Brazil.
This sentence seems, however, to no longer correspond to the current reality, with the dispute between two pre-candidates for the Planalto, the president (PT) and the senator (-RJ), for a favorable dialogue with the president of , . Other issues are likely to come to the fore in the election.
According to international analysts, his stance towards Venezuela and the way he supports the cause weigh against the PT member. In contrast, the former president’s son 01, who supports, does not have the same presence in the world and can be seen as subservient to US interests.
USP professor of international relations Feliciano de Sá Guimarães has been researching for a decade, in the study group “Brazil, the Americas and the World”, in partnership with Cebrap (Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning), the behavior of public opinion in relation to foreign policy.
“We concluded that international themes become important because they weigh on the discussion of values”, says Guimarães. “The voter is also progressive or conservative based on what is happening in the world.”
The methodology is based on quantitative “surveys”, surveys carried out to collect the impressions of interviewees on salient themes, those that attract attention. The polls were carried out from 2010 to 2023, with a turning point in 2018, with Bolsonaro’s victory, which happened in a global wave of rise of ultra-right leaders.
In this year’s election, the pre-candidates’ relationship with the USA is already a separate chapter.
“Whoever manages to profit from the relationship with Trump comes out ahead. What is profit? Creating a favorable condition in relation to the White House”, says Guimarães, for whom the level of US intervention will be a determining variable. Last week, days after the White House.
On that occasion, the senator discussed the fight against organized crime with the American president. The meeting took place at a time of crisis in his pre-candidacy, shaken by the “” case. Since the beginning of the year, Flávio has periodically traveled to the USA, exposing the alignment of Bolsonarism with Trumpism.
Professor of international relations at Faap (Centro Universitário Armando Alvares Penteado), Lucas Leite states that the reception of a senator with no executive experience in the Oval Office shows that Washington prefers an alternative to the PT. However, this decision to treat the factions as terrorists could have the opposite effect to that expected. “The Brazilian undecided voter is not ideological, but is jealous of national sovereignty in a diffuse and emotional way,” says Leite.
On Friday (29), and acts through foreign intervention. At the beginning of the month, the PT member was received at the White House, in a meeting that ended without concrete announcements, but government allies saw it as a gesture to show that dialogue with Washington is not exclusive to the Bolsonaro family. In his third term, Lula had a relationship with Trump that had ups and downs.
Last year, Trump wrote on social media that Brazil was doing a “horrible thing” with Bolsonaro, in reference to the coup plot process. He then announced a 50% surcharge on Brazilian products, which made the PT member adopt the rhetoric of national sovereignty, garnering support from the population.
In September, the heads of state had a brief meeting at the UN (United Nations), where “excellent chemistry” appeared, in Trump’s words.
For Paulo Velasco, professor of international relations at Uerj (State University of Rio de Janeiro), the classification of the PCC and the CV as terrorists leaves the president in an uncomfortable situation to try to refute the decision and position himself in the electoral race.
According to him, the middle class sees the left as more conniving with organized crime. “Having a good relationship with Trump shows that Flávio is a defender of the Western tradition and the Judeo-Christian matrix, and Lula wants to sell himself as the pragmatic leader, who does not need to be aligned.”
From an electoral point of view, the war between Israel and Hamas represent other critical points for the PT candidate. From the 2000s onwards, Lula built a close relationship with Chavismo and gained the reputation of defending dictatorships. It is no coincidence that the opposition to the PT claims that Brazil is becoming Venezuela. In his third term, Lula had a more hesitant stance towards Maduro.
In 2024, it did not recognize the re-election of the former Venezuelan dictator and demanded transparency in the elections. However, in the same year, he avoided saying that the neighboring country was experiencing a dictatorship, speaking of an “unpleasant regime”. On the third day of this year, the US invaded Venezuela and captured Maduro, now imprisoned in New York.
Delcy Rodríguez assumed power on an interim basis. “Lula still has a huge liability among centrist voters due to his relationship with dictatorships. The fact that Maduro is no longer in power is even good for him, because he won’t have to explain himself for that”, says Guilherme Casarões, professor at Florida International University.
As for Israel, a speech by Lula in Addis Ababa became representative of the government’s position. Two years ago, he went to the capital of Ethiopia and, during the African Union Summit, compared the massacre in Gaza to the Holocaust. He was declared persona non grata by the Israeli government.
“The way he dealt with Israel weighed heavily on certain segments of the electorate, such as evangelicals, Jews and people in the center,” says the professor. “For these people, Lula gave incentives for left-wing anti-Semitism.”
Flávio began the election year with a visit to Israel, where he was baptized for the second time in the Jordan River. Two months later, he went to the inauguration of José Antonio Kast as president of Chile and there he met with another ally, Argentine president Javier Milei.
“Flávio lacks international experience, which many politicians have before running for election”, says Casarões, for whom the senator is faced with the memory of his father’s isolationist policies. “The international press treated Brazil as a pariah.”
