The first round has left much more than two names for the second round on June 21. It has left a reconfigured right, a left forced to come back, accusations of fraud from power, a former president who loses the political leadership he had exercised for a quarter of a century and a victory that the international far-right celebrates as one of its greatest recent successes.
On paper, Iván Cepeda’s result should not be a cause for concern. The Historic Pact candidate obtained more than 9.6 million votes, the best result ever achieved by the Colombian left in a first presidential round. It even surpasses the records that Gustavo Petro he achieved four years ago before arriving at the Casa de Nariño.
However, the political reality that the day leaves behind is very different. because the one who won was Abelardo de la Espriella. And he did it clearly.
The far-right lawyer and businessman obtained more than 10.3 million votes, almost 44% of the votes and became the main protagonist of elections that have shaken the Colombian political table.
The left obtains its best result… and is forced to come back
The paradox of election night is evident.
The left has never come so strong But neither had an election day ended with such a bitter feeling after achieving such a result.
At Cepeda’s campaign headquarters, installed in the Tequendama Hotel in Bogotá, the expected euphoria never appeared. The more than nine and a half million votes obtained were eclipsed by the growth of De la Espriellawhich managed to mobilize a large sector of voters dissatisfied with the Government of Gustavo Petro.
The testimonies collected among the militants of the Historical Pact reflected this mixture of disappointment and resistance. The songs of “They will not pass” They replaced the celebrations that many expected to experience at the close of the polls.
Now the left faces a campaign of just three weeks in which it needs to convince new voters, expand its electoral base and, above all, prevent the right from definitively closing ranks around its rival.
The collapse of Uribismo and the birth of a new leader of the right
The other big news of the day is the change of leadership within the Colombian conservative space. For more than twenty years the right revolved around one figure: Álvaro Uribe.
The former president won the 2002 and 2006 elections with enormous authority, later promoting the candidacies of Juan Manuel Santos and Iván Duque and maintained a determining influence on national politics even after leaving the Presidency.
That cycle seems to have ended. The Uribismo candidate, Paloma Valencia, suffered a real electoral collapse. The polls gave him around 12% voting intention. It finished below 7%.
The blow was so forceful that Valencia itself announced its support for De la Espriella as soon as the results were known.
Shortly after, Uribe did the same. The message was clear: The traditional right accepts that it has lost the leadership of the conservative bloc and puts itself at the service of the new political reference.
The extreme right adds a symbolic international victory
De la Espriella’s triumph transcends Colombian borders. It also arrives at a particularly sensitive moment for the international extreme right.which in recent months had suffered some important setbacks, among them the loss of power of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, considered for years one of the great references of the global sovereignty movement.
That is why numerous ideologically related leaders reacted quickly.
Among the first to publicly congratulate the Colombian candidate were the Argentine president Javier Milei and the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, who celebrated the result as a sign of the advance of conservative forces against the progressive governments of the region.
For many analysts, De la Espriella’s campaign shares several of the elements that have driven other leaders of the new international right: a frontal speech against the traditional political elites, a strong presence on social networks and a permanent rhetoric against progressivism and established institutions.
Petro and Cepeda raise tension by questioning the result
But if something threatens to mark the coming weeks, it is not only the electoral campaign. It is the battle over the legitimacy of the result.
A few hours after the polls closed, Gustavo Petro surprised by stating that he did not accept the pre-count data released by the Registry. The president assured that there are inconsistencies in the computer system used during the day and stated that he will only recognize the official scrutiny carried out by the judges.
Shortly after, Cepeda added to the doubts. The candidate assured that there are differences of up to 885,000 people in the electoral census and denounced the existence of tables with allegedly atypical votes that are being reviewed by their teams.
The accusations provoked an immediate response from De la Espriella. “Petro, Cepeda, don’t even think about ignoring the popular will”warned the far-right candidate during his celebration speech in Barranquilla.
Far from reducing tension, both sides seem willing to turn the scrutiny process into another political battle front.
A campaign marked by polarization
The next three weeks aim to be one of the most polarized campaigns that Colombia has experienced in years. De la Espriella has already presented the second round as a fight against what he calls “the tyranny” and “absolutism” of the current Government.
Cepeda, for his part, will try to mobilize the progressive and moderate sectors by warning of the risk that the arrival of the extreme right to power would entail. Meanwhile, the political center appears weakened.
Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López added just over 5% of the votes between thembut their support can be decisive if the final difference ends up being tight.
The question is where those voters will move. And if the left is capable of expanding an electoral base that, despite having reached historic figures, has fallen behind a right that today appears more mobilized than ever.
Starting this Monday, a 21-day race begins that can change the political course of Colombia. And it has already started amid accusations of fraud, crossed reproaches and the feeling that the country is heading towards one of the most tense and unpredictable second rounds in its recent history.
