Its citizens are rushing to the polls today – and in a climate of deep polarization – for the first round of the country’s presidential elections, which will decide whether the country will continue on the path of outgoing left-wing president Gustavo Petros, whether it will return to the conservative political tradition of former president Alvaro Uribe, or whether it will join the new “Trumpogenic” family of Latin American leaders and states.
Election thriller with implications beyond Colombia
Voters are asked to choose in an electoral contest that is considered a thriller, between three main candidates, and three main candidates and many more minor – outsiders, with the spotlight mainly focused on the first three.
First and based on the opinion polls is the “successor” of Gustavo Petro and a senator of the left with a long family history in the political life of the country, Ivan Cepeda Castro, then comes again based on the measurements the “Tiger”, big lawyer and businessman, far-right in the “Trump” style of Miley and Bukele, Abelardo de la Espreya and third the first female presidential candidate in history of the country and political heir of former president Alvaro Uribe Paloma Valencia.
The three aforementioned candidates will share the lion’s share of the vote, and if the polls are confirmed, the country will likely be led to a runoff between Ivan Cepeda and either de la Espreya or Valencia, with what that might entail for the leftist candidate.
A possible duel for peace and security
Cepeda has pledged to continue the social reforms initiated by outgoing president Gustavo Petros, but he is in the crosshairs of his opponents for the fact that he played a key role in the “full peace” policy, the policy that led to the peace treaty with the FARC and other armed organizations. Critics of the agreement are taking advantage of the fact that violent attacks in Colombia between armed groups continue (just a few days ago some 52 people died in clashes), which has given Abelardo de la Estreya the pressure to argue at his election rallies that the country does not want “complete peace” but “complete security”.
As for the polls, Ivan Cepeda appears to receive in the first round depending on the measurement from about 35% to 44%, Abelardo de la Espreya moves from 21% to 31% and Paloma Valencia, from 13% to 25.4% of the vote. All analysts stress that the readings are not particularly reliable, as the number of undecideds appears huge in almost all of them, meaning that there could be upheavals that will determine the fate of Latin America’s fourth-largest economy.
The challenges and Donald Trump
In any case, the next president will be faced with great challenges: restoring security, improving the country’s fiscal situation, reducing poverty and social inequalities, but also the political pressure from the new Monroe doctrine that Donald Trump appears to be applying in Latin America and which has created crises like that of Venezuela and most recently Cuba with the aim of pushing more and more countries into the hands of his political allies or leaders who will serve US interests in the region.
