First he talked about “nuclear dust”, now he is talking about a “memorandum” that will freeze the war in the Gulf for two months so that a way to end it can be found.
Trying to baptize the meat fish, the president is preparing the American public opinion to swallow (despite the maximalist goals he had set but were not fulfilled) the bitter glass of reconciliation with his regime, which he tried to destroy on February 28 together with the Prime Minister of Israel
After , during which diplomatic consultations and limited clashes alternated, American and Iranian officials reached the outline of an agreement, which provides for the suspension of military operations and the opening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, postponing for the immediate future the “technical” negotiation on Iran’s nuclear program as well as on the “unfreezing” of Iranian assets. This official truce was a key demand for Tehran from the start.
Retreating with the Uranium
Iran must agree that it will never acquire a nuclear weapon and that it will allow the United States to retrieve enriched material from the bowels of its bombed facilities to destroy it, Trump said Friday night shortly before a White House meeting to greenlight the signing of the memorandum. The operation should be done under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Commission, the US president said, while leaving open the possibility of China’s participation as well. Verbal stunts cannot hide Trump’s backtracking on his initial claim of immediate delivery of the material to the US, and Iran will also be able to claim that the enriched uranium is not leaving its soil.
Washington’s closest ally has already split his position, by reason and by deed. Israel is pounding Hezbollah in Lebanon, having designated a fifth of the country as a military zone, while in Gaza it is systematically exterminating Hamas leaders by bombing residential areas and is now aiming to capture 70% of the Strip, as Netanyahu stated. Israeli military operations are undermining the US-Iran memorandum as Tehran seeks a comprehensive solution that would include its proxies in the region and Tel Aviv expresses its displeasure that there is no explicit reference to Iran’s missile program.
Without the slightest trace of self-criticism, Trump presented the situation as rosy in the “open” meeting of the Cabinet last Wednesday night at the White House, where for an hour and a half he exchanged congratulations with his ministers on the progress of government work. He said those who bet that his party’s fear of defeat in November’s midterm elections for congressional renewal would influence his decisions on war are in vain, stressed that the US is self-sufficient in oil and assured that it is only a matter of time before fuel prices fall.
The “front” with Oman
But the president also said something else, highlighting yet another point of friction in the Gulf. Expressing his displeasure at talks between Iran and Oman over a plan to impose tariffs on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the US president openly threatened the sultanate for separating its position from other Gulf regimes. “Oman is going to behave like everybody else, or we’re going to have to blow them up,” Trump said. “They understand that — they’re going to be fine,” Trump added, adding water to the fire that had just been lit.
Oman has maintained friendly and cooperative relations with the US since 1833, when it was at its height dominating areas from the opposite coast of Hormuz (in present-day Iran as well as Pakistan) to the east coast of Africa (Zanzibar, Mozambique). It was the first Gulf country to establish diplomatic relations with the US after independence and sent the first Arab ambassador to America, before it weakened and became a British protectorate in the late 19th century. For historical, political and economic reasons, Oman has good relations with Iran, which have allowed it to take a mediating role in the current conflict by hosting successive rounds of talks and avoid Iranian attacks. The country has no US bases, but the cooperation agreement with the US allows the use of military facilities.
The Straits and “explanations”
The American president sent a message to the leadership of the sultanate not to overdo it, because he is considering together with Tehran a scenario of “providing services” to the ships that will pass through the Straits avoiding the term “fees”. The White House insists that navigation should be free, without footnotes but with US oversight. In the midst of war, Iran demanded two million dollars from every ship attempting to pass through the Straits, effectively changing the shipping regime. It remains unknown how much and which companies paid until the US imposed its own naval blockade, which will be lifted if the memorandum is signed.
In short, Trump will have to explain to the American people how the agreement now in the works differs from the one Barack Obama reached in 2015 to control the Iranian nuclear program. That is why this war happened.
