If it is hasty to make definitive bets on the outcome of what will happen four months from now, it seems foolhardy to dive into projections about the 2030 scenario.
However, this is exactly what is already being done in the political world, taking into account two factors: the end of the Bolsonaro franchise’s cycle of success and the longevity of the era of influence in central power.
The forces that move in today’s narrow space between the two poles of right and left act with one eye on the fish of the current race and the other on the cat of what may, or may not, turn out to be a renewal in the menu of options and in the criteria for choices of the electorate still guided by extreme esteem and rejection.
The following idea begins to circulate in the center, center-right and even the right interested in freeing itself from the yoke of Bolsonarism: if the dispute between Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT) and () is confirmed, it would be better for future business to invest in the re-election of .
According to this assessment, the PT would resume the government weakened in terms of expectations of power that would already be in dispute the day after taking office. In the case of Flávio Bolsonaro’s victory, the Palácio do Planalto would be handed over to the restart of a cycle of clan dominance. With amnesty for the former president and the prospect of reuniting forces.
It should be noted that there is no effort for unity among Lula’s opponents. The (Novo) and () groups talk about an alliance with each other in the first round, but do not consider joining the PL.
They leave open support in the final stage as if the possibility of them being together was obvious, but without making any commitments beforehand. For now, they are supported by the claim that they are competing for a place in the second round. It’s really not what they count on.
They give it time, believing in a pragmatic reissue of the broad front in favor of Lula in the center, while the right would look at the scene in the box, dedicated to fictitious support in the hand washing exercise.
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