An “act of desperation” led Putin to make a decision that also serves as a warning to Europe

Moscow’s attack on Ukraine left 22 people dead and dozens injured in the last few hours. Experts interviewed by CNN Portugal believe that it was “an act of desperation”, as Putin may have a serious internal problem on his hands

More than two dozen dead, a huge trail of destruction and hundreds of injured. of the last black night of intense Russian bombings against several Ukrainian cities. The attack, however, did not translate into Russian military gains on the ground, which may indicate that Moscow’s objective was, after all, different.

“It was an act of desperation. Putin still believes that, through this type of attack, he can lead Ukraine to capitulate”, explains Colonel José Carmo to CNN Portugal, highlighting that the Russian president “lives in a bubble”.

According to Moscow, the attack was a response to the “terrorist attack” against a dormitory at the University of Luhansk, which caused 21 deaths, although Ukraine denies any involvement in the offensive.

“Overnight, in response to terrorist acts by the Kiev regime, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive attack using high-precision long-range air, land and sea weapons,” Russian officials revealed in a statement.

However, the military expert who spoke to CNN Portugal points to other reasons for the attack that caused at least 22 deaths in Kiev, Dnipro or Kharkiv. “The first objective was to restore Russia’s deterrent capacity in the face of the increase in Ukrainian attacks on targets such as cities or structures in the country”, he begins by highlighting.

Another identified axis passes through the Russian internal dimension. According to the colonel, there is a need to reinforce a narrative that is being questioned: “the fact that there are many visible Ukrainian bombings already in Russian cities” is eroding the idea of ​​a strong Russia capable of defending its territory, and the data arriving from Ukraine also points to Moscow’s territorial losses.

On the other hand, José Carmo also points to an objective of a broader strategic and military nature: “to degrade the economic, military and political structure in Ukraine”. “Russia is already predicting that there will be negotiations soon. With these attacks, they are moving towards stronger talks and making Ukraine softer in fear of these massive bombings.”

Meanwhile, Cátia Moreira de Carvalho, an international relations specialist, points to signs of growing internal wear and tear in Russia. “We are beginning to notice discontent”, he tells CNN Portugal, explaining that the population is beginning to feel the effects of the war more directly.

Ukrainian attacks on refineries and other strategic infrastructure, as well as internet cuts, are changing Russians’ daily lives. “People see that their lives are not improving” and this could indicate that “something inside Russia could be happening that is not yet showing on the outside”.

Cátia Moreira de Carvalho admits that there may be a greater level of contestation than is publicly visible. “I think it could be greater discontent among the population. (…) People who see their family members dying and who are against the war” could be contributing to an environment of increasing pressure on the Kremlin, he admits.

The researcher also highlights that there are signs that Putin has appeared more guarded, which has fueled speculation about possible internal movements. “Several articles have raised the idea that there will be conversations to try, in some way, to replace Putin”, something that the CNN Portugal commentator considers “quite difficult”.

In his reading, the offensive served more for internal consumption than for achieving gains on the ground. “What happened now was a good excuse for Russia to show that it remains strong”, at a time when “it is losing more men than it can replace”.

The last assessment made by the Ukrainian authorities showed 22 deaths and more than 100 injuries. The most serious scenario occurred in Dnipro, where, according to regional governor Oleksandr Hanzha, 16 people lost their lives and at least 35 were injured.

Moscow wants Kiev to “deflect its air defenses”

Another of Moscow’s objectives identified by military expert José Carmo is to exploit Ukrainian difficulties on the front lines, in a context in which Kiev “is managing to isolate the lines of communications behind the combat fronts”. This situation forces, according to the expert, Ukraine to “concentrate defenses in the capital, which is symbolic, and in large cities”, where critical infrastructures are concentrated, leading to the need to “divert air defenses”.

José Carmo also highlights that this scenario is aggravated by the reduction in the Ukrainian capacity to intercept ballistic missiles. “At the moment, Ukraine’s ability to intercept ballistic missiles is greatly reduced, because it does not have enough interceptors.”

The expert adds that international supply has also been decreasing. “The United States greatly reduced the supply, even of purchased material”, while from Europe only “dozens monthly” arrived, a support that, even so, he considers limited, although better than the total absence of resources.

In this context, Ukraine is forced to carefully manage the available resources. “You have to route the missiles you use to intercept this type of ballistic missiles”, he points out, describing attacks in which “it is often necessary to launch two” to guarantee interception, in a scenario in which air defense requires increasingly greater containment and precision.

The expert highlights, however, the limitations of this type of offensive, explaining that “these attacks cannot be carried out every day, because Russia does not have the capacity”, remembering that “the missiles that were launched in the last few hours are half of the monthly production” and that, in the case of the Zircon missiles, “it is almost three months’ production”, although only eight were launched.

However, hours after the intense attacks, Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to the Ukrainians with his eyes on his European partners. Through a message published on the social network

“Europe needs its own anti-ballistic defense so that this war can finally come to an end,” wrote Zelensky in a message posted on the social network X, where he described the offensive launched overnight by Russia.

More than 500 personnel of the State Emergency Service have been involved in dealing with the aftermath of Russia’s overnight attack on our cities and communities. The main strike was on Kyiv, where dozens of residential buildings and other purely civilian infrastructure were…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Volodymyr Zelensky (@ZelenskyyUa)

A warning for Europe

But Putin’s focus in launching harsh attacks against Ukraine may not have been just Ukraine after all. His message was intended to go much further. According to Colonel José Carmo, interviewed by CNN Portugal, Putin also sought to “create this idea in Europe that it is not worth supporting Ukraine”, in a strategy that, despite seeming “absurd” to him, could make sense “in his mental universe”.

“I don’t see any of the Europeans, at least those most capable of helping Ukraine, believing this story,” he emphasizes, adding that he also doesn’t see a Europe willing to be intimidated, after having already faced high levels of concern throughout the conflict.

“The result of a Ukrainian capitulation would be catastrophic for Europe. It would give Putin absolutely overwhelming power”, he warns.

The expert highlights, however, the limitations of this type of offensive, explaining that “these attacks cannot be carried out every day, because Russia does not have the capacity”, remembering that “the missiles that were launched in the last few hours are half of the monthly production” and that, in the case of the Zircon missiles, “it is almost three months’ production”, although only eight were launched.

Hours after the Ukrainian reaction, it was Russia’s turn to react to the attacks against the neighboring country. The Kremlin confirmed that Russia continues to carry out systematic attacks against Ukrainian military infrastructure, in a strategy that, according to Moscow, has now entered a “new paradigm”.