The start of the electoral dispute in the states takes place under the shadow of the courts, which could redefine the political tableau for the October elections in at least five states and in .
While the (Supreme Federal Court) discusses the validity of the changes promoted by the na, politicians with legal issues are launching pre-candidacies for the government and the Senate in a scenario of insecurity in the face of the Electoral Court.
In September 2025, Congress approved a project that reduces the effects of ineligibility by allowing the eight-year period to start counting from conviction, and not after serving the sentence. The change was challenged in the STF by the Rede Sustentabilidade party.
The ministers voted to overturn the changes, pointing out setbacks in the Clean Record Law, but the vote was interrupted in the last week of May with a request for a view from the minister.
Among politicians heard by Sheetthe assessment is that the request for review indicates a position contrary to the overturning of the flexibility of Ficha Limpa. For them, the change in the law would be casuistry, as it would change the rules less than a year before the election.
While the STF has not concluded its judgment on the action, the status of the candidacies of politicians such as José Roberto Arruda (-DF) remains uncertain.
Governor of the Federal District between 2007 and 2010 and pivot of the DEM’s monthly allowance, Arruda was arrested and convicted in cases arising from Operation Pandora’s Box, in 2009, when he was .
After more than 15 years, he decided to return to politics and ran as a candidate to challenge Governor Celina Leão (), but he faces a scenario of doubts in the legal field: as he has had an appeal without a trial for years, the penalty of ineligibility has not yet started to be served.
“It’s a situation that causes some degree of uncertainty and the group in power is very insistent on casting this doubt on voters. But the moment I register my candidacy this doubt ends. I’m very confident that this time they’ll let me run”, says Arruda.
He states that he consulted lawyers before launching his candidacy and highlighted that, given the current scenario after the changes to the Clean Record Law, he is eligible. He also says he does not believe that the STF will overturn the changes in the law and alter the rules on the eve of the elections: “I believe in Justice.”
In , three former governors who planned to be candidates faced pending legal proceedings or were the target of investigations, as shown in the cases of Cláudio Castro, Anthony Garotinho and Wilson Witzel.
Cláudio Castro (), who even launched himself as a pre-candidate for the Senate, after becoming the target of investigations by the . The movement changed the local scenario and political calculations of allies and opponents in the state.
Among the candidates for government, Anthony Garotinho () launched himself as a pre-candidate amidst a scenario of doubts. But the STF annulled convictions arising from Operation Chequinho in May, in a decision that returned his eligibility.
Wilson Witzel joined the Democrat Party, formerly the Brazilian Women’s Party, to run again for governor of Rio, but the impeachment process declared him ineligible for five years in 2021.
When contacted, the former governor says he is ready to contest the 2026 elections, as the conviction in the impeachment process is more than five years old from the decision, following the provisions of the law approved by Congress.
At least two states in the North are experiencing situations of uncertainty. In Acre, Gladson Cameli (PP) resigned from the government to run for the Senate, but was convicted by the STJ (Superior Court of Justice) for the crimes of criminal organization, corruption, embezzlement, money laundering and bidding fraud.
The conviction, for which there are still resources available, cast doubt on the electoral viability of one of the state’s main political leaders.
In Roraima, the state succession underwent a reversal after the revocation of the ticket elected in 2022. As a result, the decision paved the way for an indirect election to choose a buffer governor on June 21 and changed the local political board on the eve of the campaign.
Edilson Damião (União Brasil), vice president who took office in April and planned to run for re-election, now faces uncertainty about his participation in this year’s election. The situation is similar for Antonio Denarium (Republicans), who governed the state between 2019 and 2026 and planned to run for the Senate.
Even the indirect election scenario is confused because Arthur Henrique (PL), who resigned from the Boa Vista mayorship in April to run for government in October, had his participation in the June election vetoed by the STF. Arthur Henrique (PL), who resigned as mayor of Boa Vista in April to run for government in October, had his participation in the June election vetoed by the STF.
The minister decided that only candidates who respected a disqualification period of six months before the election can compete in June, which was not the case with Arthur Henrique, who could only compete in the October election.
Among the states in the Northeast, Sergipe faces a scenario of uncertainty. The main opposition name in the dispute for government, Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicans) is eligible thanks to a preliminary decision. His political future, however, remains conditioned on the outcome of the processes in the Electoral Court.
In 2022, Valmir was the government candidate who received the most votes in the first round, but the Electoral Court declared him ineligible and he did not compete in the second stage of the dispute, won by today’s governor Fábio Mitidieri (PSD).
In Paraná, the former public prosecutor (Novo) remains in an undefined scenario. Revoked by the Superior Electoral Court in 2023, he seeks to reverse the effects of the decision to run for the Senate on the ticket led by former judge and senator Sérgio Moro (PL), with whom he served in the .
Valmir de Francisquinho, Gladson Cameli, Edilson Damião and Antonio Denarium were contacted by the report, but did not comment.
