Errors would skyrocket by 163%: Trump’s cuts to ocean surveillance threaten climate monitoring around the world

Errors would skyrocket by 163%: Trump's cuts to ocean surveillance threaten climate monitoring around the world

For years, this invisible network with sensors and It has allowed scientists to better understand how the planet’s climate evolves and predict extreme phenomena that affect millions of people, by recording temperature, salinity and the flow of ocean currents. Now, much of that infrastructure is threatened.

of Donald Trump Administration to cut key programs ocean observation in the US has set off all the alarms in the international scientific community.

Experts warn that the loss of data could have global consequences, from worse prediction of hurricanes to much greater errors in ocean forecasts.

According to a recent study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, if only US-funded observations disappeared, errors in estimates of ocean heat content would increase by 163%.

A $386 million network that was going to last decades

The trigger for concern is the progressive dismantling of the Ocean Observatory Initiative (OOI), one of the most advanced marine surveillance systems in the world.

The program was launched in 2016 after a federal investment of 386 million dollars (about 334 million euros) and has more than 900 instruments deployed in different strategic points, from the American west coast to the Irminger Sea, between Greenland and Iceland.

Its goal was to operate for several more decades. However, the National Science Foundation (NSF) announced at the end of May a sharp reduction in infrastructure and the beginning of a dismantling process that will last about fifteen months.

The decision comes in a context of budget cuts that affect numerous scientific and environmental programs since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025.

An ocean that satellites cannot see

The researchers’ concern has a simple explanation: The oceans store more than 90% of the excess heat generated by global warming And yet, much of what happens beneath the surface is invisible to satellites.

That is why buoys, sensors and underwater vehicles are essential.

“This is a colossal loss of extremely valuable information,” warned Sabrina Speich, oceanographer and chair of the ocean expert committee of the United Nations Global Climate Observing System, in statements.

The data collected allows us to measure how the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, exchanges heat with the atmosphere, modifies ocean currents and affects climatic phenomena such as El Niño.

They are also essential for studying marine heat waves, ocean ecosystems, coastal flooding and underwater seismic activity.

The North Atlantic, under surveillance

One of the most sensitive points of the entire network is located in the Irminger Sea, between Greenland and Iceland.

The instruments installed there help monitor the so-called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the gigantic system of ocean currents that helps maintain relatively mild temperatures in Western Europe.

Numerous studies have warned that Global warming could progressively weaken this circulation over the coming decades, with potential effects on the European climate.

Precisely for this reason, scientists consider it especially worrying to lose a continuous series of observations that began more than ten years ago.

The Argo program, the backbone of the system

Beyond American observatories, the threat extends to the entire global ocean surveillance system. Its main tool is program Argoan international network made up of between 3,500 and 4,000 autonomous buoys distributed throughout the planet’s oceans.

These platforms can descend up to 6,000 meters deep and record fundamental parameters such as temperature, salinity, pressure, dissolved oxygen and variables related to the carbon cycle.

The US currently provides around 55% of the funding for the global system and generates more than half of the ocean data collected in the world. Therefore, any significant reduction in their participation has immediate effects on the overall observation capacity.

The consequences go far beyond the climate

Ocean data are not only used to study global warming. Meteorologists from around the world They use them to improve forecasts of hurricanes and extreme storms.

Maritime authorities depend on them to ensure safe navigation. Fishing fleets use them to manage resources that are increasingly affected by rising temperatures and the loss of oxygen in the water.

David Ho, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii, warns that the effects could be felt for decades.

According to him, further cuts would compromise the ability to accurately model the climate system, predict extreme weather events and validate satellite observations.

For many researchers, the problem transcends the United States. What is at stake is the planet’s ability to understand what is happening in the oceans just when climate change accelerates unprecedented transformations.

And in a world increasingly affected by hurricanes, floods, droughts and heat waves, having less information about the real state of the seas can end up being much more expensive than maintaining the buoys that today silently monitor the planet.

source