Focus Bulletin also shows an increase in expectations for the 2026 IPCA, which went from 5.09% to 5.11%
Economists consulted by the Central Bank raised their projection for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of 2026, according to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (June 8, 2026). The median estimate went from 13.25% to 13.5% per year. For 2027, the expectation rose from 11.25% to 11.5%. Here is it (PDF – 765 kB)
The report also showed a further deterioration in inflation expectations. The projection for the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index) for 2026 increased from 5.09% to 5.11%, the 13th consecutive increase. For 2027, the estimate went from 4.02% to 4.03%.
The numbers remain above the continuous inflation target pursued by the Central Bank, of 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points higher or lower.
For 2028, the expectation for the IPCA decreased slightly from 3.66% to 3.65%, while the projection for 2029 was maintained at 3.5%.
The estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026 rose from 1.9% to 1.91%. For 2027, it remained at 1.7%. Projections for 2028 and 2029 remained at 2%.
Dollar is revised downwards
The market again reduced its exchange rate projections. Expectations for the dollar at the end of 2026 fell from R$5.16 to R$5.15. For 2027, it dropped from R$5.25 to R$5.20.
Estimates for 2028 were maintained at R$5.30. For 2029, there was a reduction from R$5.40 to R$5.35.
Currently, Selic is at 14.50% per year. The Focus Bulletin brings together weekly projections from financial institutions and consultancies for indicators such as inflation, interest rates, economic activity and exchange rates. The estimates are monitored by the Central Bank and serve as a reference for monetary policy decisions.
