El Niño formed in the equatorial Pacific, paving the way for months of droughts, floods and temperature swings that are expected to threaten communities around the world, as well as agriculture and the energy sector.
The weather phenomenon, identified by the Japan Meteorological Agency, is the first since 2023 — and could be one of the most intense ever recorded. According to the agency, El Niño should gain strength in the coming months, become very strong at the end of the year and persist at least until December. In addition to Japan, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration also reported the onset of the phenomenon.
El Niño is characterized by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which changes global climate patterns and can harm crops and put pressure on electricity grids. Even before the official declaration, its effects were already being felt in several regions, from the delay in the start of the monsoon in India to the temporary interruption of the fishing season in Peru.
An intense El Niño in 1997 killed at least 30,000 people and caused around US$100 billion in damage worldwide. A 2023 study from Dartmouth College estimated that the lingering effects of El Niño could cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
The intensity of El Niño is determined by how much above normal the temperature of the equatorial Pacific is; an anomaly of 2°C or more is considered a very strong event — what is informally called a “Super El Niño”. According to Marex, strong episodes have historically reduced the productivity of palm oil, coffee, cocoa, cotton and grains, including wheat and rice.
Other impacts on climate around the world are expected to spread and gain strength as El Niño reaches its peak in December or January. These could include a colder, wetter winter in the southern United States, as well as droughts and wildfires in parts of Australia.
The Atlantic hurricane season could also be affected. Atmospheric changes associated with El Niño tend to increase wind shear in the basin, making it difficult for tropical storms and hurricanes to form.
This does not mean, however, that hurricanes and tropical storms cannot hit the United States, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Initial forecasts from academic institutions, consultancies and government agencies generally pointed to around 14 named storms this year, a number more or less in line with the historical average.
What worries many industry and climate observers is that this year’s El Niño could evolve into a “super” event. In the United States, the phenomenon is identified by monitoring the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, especially in a region known as Niño 3.4.
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The criteria used by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to characterize El Niño is when sea surface temperatures exceed the long-term average by at least 0.5°C for five consecutive moving quarters.
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