SpaceX’s imminent debut on the stock exchange gave a boost to the performance of other aerospace companies listed in the United States. What’s more, the marriage of an aggressive US government investment cycle with actual operational deliveries also supports the latest moves in stocks. The cycle can hide, however, the challenges of a very segmented sector made up of a group of highly volatile companies.
To give you an idea, the space sector themed ETF called UFO gained around 29% in value this year, reaching a peak value of 68% at the end of May. NASA, another index fund exposed to companies in the sector, records gains of 14% per year.
In the field of rocket launches, Rocket Lab is the main reference, widely considered as “number 2” in the segment, behind SpaceX. In the first quarter of 2026, it reported revenue of R$200 million, an annual increase of 64%, with a record backlog of US$2.2 billion.
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“A relevant detail: its space systems division (components, software, satellites) already earns more than the launch business”, says the CEO of Gravus Capital, Ricardo Trevisan.
The company is currently operating with launches of the Electron rocket and part of the market prices its shares looking at the development of the next aircraft, the Neutron, scheduled for 2026 after delays. And this scenario explains one of the main risks related to launch companies: delays in the technological calendar make shares very volatile.
It is not uncommon for these companies to face positive or negative variations of 15% to 20% within the same trading session due to news about contracts or the progress of new development projects, explains the director of the Eclipseon family office, Ricardo Simon.
Furthermore, companies in the sector operate at very high multiples, increasing the volatility margin. SpaceX, for example, debuts with a market price equivalent to 92 times its revenue, a value close to that of 94 times its revenue. In terms of comparison, Palantir, S&P’s most expensive stock, trades at 62 times.
NASA’s aggressive investments encourage optimism
It is true that the context of recent years has been favorable. Since President Donald Trump nominated Jared Isaacman to the top administration position at NASA, the pace of announcements of new projects related to the lunar base and the Artemis program has accelerated.
“As several of the companies have a significant portion of their revenue linked to NASA, they benefit directly from this more aggressive planning,” says Simon. The expectation is that the Artemis program will take man to the Moon again by 2028.
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An emblematic example is . Three contracts with NASA for the production of onboard equipment are the lunar landing module company’s main lines of revenue for the next few years, totaling US$377 million in launches by 2030.
“The stock fluctuates intensely with each news of a new contract or each announcement related to the Artemis program. For this company, news from NASA is the main price driver”, points out Simon.
To give you an idea, Intuitive Machines left 2025 with revenue of approximately US$210 million and reported a revenue projection of US$900 million to US$1 billion in 2026. The company’s shares appreciated 50% this year, but reached a peak of 155% in May.
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“Whoever charges the toll earns more”
Although rocket launching is the most visible activity among the general public, it represents only one part of the space economy. The infrastructure of satellite connectivity, lunar exploration technology or earth observation, in many cases, brings together more predictable businesses.
“Perhaps the best way to summarize the sector is a simple analogy: those who make money most consistently in infrastructure are not always those who build the road, but those who charge the toll on it”, points out the founding partner of Private Investimentos, Cleiton Souza.
In the case of SpaceX itself, the Starlink orbital satellite unit helps anchor the company’s market value. There are also examples such as AST SpaceMobile, which recorded an appreciation of more than 200% in the twelve months of 2025 although it is still very dependent on the launches of Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos and still burns cash, recording a loss of US$ 191 million in the first quarter of this year.
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Trevisan cites more mature names in connectivity such as Iridium, Viasat and Globalstar, all listed on the stock exchange. He also mentions Earth observation companies, such as Planet Labs, owner of the largest imaging constellation on the planet and record annual revenue of US$307.7 million driven by defense and intelligence contracts with NGA, NRO, NASA, US Navy and NATO.
SpaceX is expected to make a record IPO of US$75 billion, which would value the company at US$1.77 trillion.
