“We are only at the beginning of the path, which opens up wide possibilities for us in terms of the next twist and development of events. What we are doing now is, so to speak, cultivating the ground to prepare offensive operations of a more strategic scale. Now we are doing everything to neutralize the adversary and not allow him to increase his troops by additional people or to secure these troops. But it is not that we now have the opportunity to attack,” commented Ukrainian military analyst Serhiy Hrabskyj for .
Also a military expert of the Kyiv Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI. Pavlo Lakijčuk explains to Aktuality.sk that in the case of Crimea, it is not yet possible to talk about its complete blockade.
He reminded that although the Ukrainian forces were able to hit the Russians in a sensitive place, such as the Novorossiya highway, Moscow also has other routes through which it can supply its troops on the peninsula. Although some are not used today, such as the Kerch bridge, where the transport of explosive material was stopped after the Ukrainian attacks, Lakiychuk notes that the Kremlin could potentially lift this ban.
“Then there is the ferry service. After 2014, the Russians thought that the Kerch bridge would be enough for them, so they let it go bankrupt. They sold off the property, but in 2022 they found that things were not going according to their plan. They had to restore it. When military cargoes started to be transported by ferries, they became a target, so this service is also not working at full capacity. They also do not do well with military ships. Let’s remember, how Novocherkask happened – it vaporized. The large landing ship was filled with ammunition and exploded. It was not even supposed to sink,” the expert concluded.
They are slowing down the Russian attack
Similarly, in 2024, the ship Cezar Kunikov also fell. The Russian admirals subsequently decided not to use the sea for logistics, but Lakijčuk points out that this too may change. “That’s why we can’t say that this whole logistical artery to Crimea is cut off. There are holes in it, blood is coming out, but the Russians still have the ability to bandage it,” he said.
According to the Ukrainian expert, behind the strategy, which the Ukrainian Minister of Defense called “logistical lockdown”, is the effort to destroy Russia’s offensive potential.
We will remind you that for several months the Russians have been putting more pressure on the cities in the part of the Donetsk region that is still controlled by Ukraine, and since the spring there has been talk of another Russian offensive campaign.
“The battle is won by tactics and the strategy is won by logistics. So logistics must be destroyed. It is easiest to destroy it in the south. So far, our forces have disrupted one important vein. We cannot say that the Ukrainian forces control this entire direction (to Crimea, ed.), but when you injure it, complications begin,” Lakiychuk assessed.
According to him, the situation is different on the eastern front. “It’s much more difficult there. The East – that’s a whole network of roads and railways. You control one road, but the Russians can redirect logistics to another. Trying to bring a larger territory under fire control is a purposeful plan that requires more work,” he explained to Aktuality.sk, adding that although the lockdown has “suffocated” the Russians, they also understand that they must act quickly.
Kostanynivka in danger
The Russian army is exerting pressure today especially near the town of Kosťantynivka in the Donetsk region.
The city is part of an agglomeration several tens of kilometers long, which is also a strategic defense belt of the area. The Russians are not only pressing in this section, the Ukrainian army also repels their attacks near Sloviansk, which lies at the opposite end of the agglomeration. However, in the case of Kosťantynivka, there have been rumors that it may fall in the coming months.
“The situation around the city is bad. What is the intention of the Russian offensive operation summer-autumn 2026? It is a repetition of the intention of 2024 and 2025. (Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces) Gerasimov convinced Vladimir Putin that the Ukrainian army must be destroyed or encircled. Block it so that Moscow can demand surrender. Most of the Ukrainian army it is concentrated in the east. From their point of view, it is enough to strike from Pokrovsko and from Lyman. It is not necessary to attack the cities, but to surround them,” explains Lakijčuk, which logic the Russians can follow.
It didn’t work out for them last year. According to the analyst, they started the first stage in the winter, but they ran out of strength in Pokrovsk. He explained that the Russians need to widen the wedge on the battlefield, which they drive into the Ukrainian hinterland, but for now the Ukrainian army can quickly cut off their narrow ridges – similar to what happened last year, for example, near the town of Dobropilľa. “In order to expand the wedge, they need Kostanynivka. This would allow them to advance north, bypassing Kramatorsk,” describes Lakijchuk.
They want to serve Putin another conquered city
According to him, the commander of the Russian army will press for the conquest of Kostiantynivka also in order to be able to report at least some success to the head of the Kremlin.
“When he cannot implement the attack plan for the third time, which cost them enormous losses, Putin will have to be given something on a plate. Just as Putin was served Bakhmut, Avdijivka, and Pokrovsk,” Lakiychuk pointed out.
How long the city, which was turned into ruins by the Russian bombardment, will survive depends on how well the Ukrainians manage to destroy Russian logistics.
At the same time, some Ukrainian journalists read the cutting off of Crimea from military supplies or far-reaching Ukrainian attacks on energy and military facilities in the Russian rear as a possible preparation for negotiations. They also add a “diplomatic offensive” to it, to which they included an open letter to Vladimir Putin, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy published during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
Among other things, the Ukrainian president proposed to Putin a personal negotiation, but the head of the Kremlin told him from St. Petersburg that until there is an agreement, he sees no point in the meeting.
Will negotiations begin again?
According to the daily, the presidential office has been trying to do everything in recent months to revive the peace talks, which were put on the back burner by the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and at the same time to get the Americans more actively involved in the process again.
Now, a window of opportunity may open up for Ukrainians as technology begins to bring them important results. The newspaper writes that its Ukrainian sources believe that negotiations – with the aim of achieving, for example, a gradual ceasefire – could start as early as this autumn.
However, analyst Lakijčuk is skeptical.
“President Zelensky once thought that it was enough to sit down at the negotiating table, look Putin in the eye and find points where we can agree with the Russians. But Putin is not like that. Putin is a different generation, and he came out of the environment of the secret services. They don’t think like that there. Moreover, Putin is in a dead end. Because he knows that prolonging the war means deepening the decline at home. If he would stop the war, and that without victory, then he is done.” he added.
