After almost four months of conflict, the United States and Iran reached, on Sunday, a strategic route for the global transportation of oil. The announcement brought down commodity prices and boosted international markets, by reducing fears of interruptions in global energy supply.
Despite the initial positive reaction, analysts estimate that the normalization of maritime flow will take time. With the formal signing of the memorandum of understanding, scheduled for Friday (19), Iran intends to gradually reopen the strait, as it progresses in removing mines installed in the region. Opening could take weeks.
During this transition period, the country said it will not charge navigation fees. At the same time, navies from the United Kingdom and other European countries are deploying vessels to the Mediterranean to support mine clearance operations and accelerate the resumption of traffic.
Global stocks continue to decline rapidly, with importing countries drawing on reserves in the face of unprecedented disruptions in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global stocks fell by around 250 million barrels in March and April combined, equivalent to an average reduction of approximately 4 million barrels per day.
As peak summer demand approaches, supply constraints, especially the absence of additional exports from the region, could push the market into the IEA’s so-called “red zone” by July or August, a level at which inventories fall below what is needed to absorb additional shocks without significantly increasing volatility.
In JPMorgan’s assessment, although the agreement represents a relevant step forward in reducing geopolitical tensions, the global macroeconomic scenario is expected to remain uncertain in the second half of 2026. The bank maintains a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a base scenario, but believes that geopolitical fragmentation will remain high, sustaining relevant risks for the economy and markets.
Even in this environment, JPMorgan remains constructive on risky assets. The bank assesses that oil can remain high for longer, but without compromising the resilience of the global economy, and maintains a preference for growth stocks, large capitalization companies and the technology sector, especially in segments linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors and data centers.
In emerging markets, JPMorgan raised its recommendation for emerging country currencies to overweight (above the market average), maintaining a neutral stance for interest rates, sovereign bonds and corporate credit.
