The possibility of an alliance between senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the federation formed by União Brasil and PP has lost strength in recent weeks. The information is from CNN Brazil.
Behind the scenes, brought by the newspaper, leaders of the two parties assess that the most likely scenario today is neutrality in the 2026 presidential contest, despite part of the federation seeing the potential for electoral recovery for the PL pre-candidate.
The main obstacle is in the PP. According to the investigation of the CNN Brasil, the national president of the party, senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), resists any formal approach with Flávio. Among the parliamentarian’s allies, the assessment remains that the PL senator lacked solidarity after the Federal Police operation that targeted Ciro in May.
At the time, Flávio stated that the accusations against the PP president were “serious”. Days later, when the audios in which Flávio demanded resources from businessman Daniel Vorcaro for the film “Dark Horse” became public, Ciro reacted in a similar tone. “If he is guilty, he must pay exemplarily,” he declared.
Lack of articulation also weighs heavily
Resistance is not limited to personal differences, according to the broadcaster. According to the federation’s interlocutors, so far Flávio’s campaign has not formally sought out either União Brasil or the PP to discuss a possible electoral composition. The absence of talks is seen as a sign that the PL may be willing to contest the election without strong allies.
This perception has been reinforced in recent weeks by internal movements within the party surrounding the choice of vice president. Federation leaders believe that the PL is working with the hypothesis of launching a ticket exclusively made up of members of the party.
The most cited name in this context is that of federal deputy Júlia Zanatta (PL-SC), publicly defended by former deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro.
Vorcaro case changed political environment
Despite the current difficulties, federation leaders recognized the CNN that the scenario was different before the crisis caused by the “Dark Horse” case.
Internal surveys analyzed by the group indicate that Flávio suffered wear after the release of the audios involving Daniel Vorcaro, but not to a sufficient extent to make his candidacy unfeasible. According to members of the federation, the senator would have lost around five points in the polls, recovering part of this space in the following weeks.
Continues after advertising
Still, the prevailing assessment is that the controversy has reduced political appetite for an immediate alliance.
Allies of Ciro Nogueira argue that, without a consistent improvement in the electoral framework and without effective negotiation with the federation, the tendency is for União Brasil and PP to remain outside the PL presidential ticket.
With the party convention scheduled for July and the definition of vice president still open, Flávio will have a few weeks to try to reverse the resistance and expand his coalition for the 2026 dispute.
Continues after advertising
