American intelligence agencies estimate that the Israeli prime minister may act in a way that could complicate her efforts to establish a long-term relationship with Israel, according to a Washington Post report citing current and former US officials.
According to relevant estimates, Israel appears determined to continue military pressure against Hezbollah in , despite the ceasefire announced between the two sides. US officials believe such a development could jeopardize the fragile balance between Washington and Tehran, as Iran has made it clear that de-escalation on the Lebanese front is a key condition for progress in diplomatic ties.
Concern in Washington is intensifying as a new escalation in Lebanon could negatively affect not only the recently signed US-Iran deal, but also Netanyahu’s relations with US President Donald Trump. The latter has already hinted at disagreements with the Israeli government over the handling of the situation in Lebanon, calling on Israel to show greater restraint in its operations.
A critical factor is the internal situation in Israel
At the same time, American agencies link Netanyahu’s attitude to internal political developments in Israel. In view of the elections expected in the autumn, they estimate that the Israeli prime minister considers that maintaining a strong military presence in southern Lebanon and the continuation of operations against Hezbollah are crucial elements for his political survival. Conversely, a retreat or withdrawal of forces could be presented by his political opponents as a sign of weakness.
At the heart of the disagreements is the content of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. According to the publication, Israeli officials express reservations about some parts of the agreement, considering that they weaken the policy of pressure exerted on Tehran. For its part, the US government maintains that the agreement does not limit Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah attacks, insisting, however, that the main goal remains to stabilize the region and prevent a new international crisis.
The same estimates indicate that Israeli public opinion appears largely supportive of continued operations against Hezbollah, increasing pressure on the government to maintain a hard line. But US officials warn that even without a new military escalation, the presence of Israeli forces in southern Lebanon could create conditions for further destabilization and increase the risk of renewed conflict.
As they note, the long-term presence of troops in the region raises the risk of new clashes between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, with potential consequences for both regional security and broader ongoing diplomatic efforts.
