Polarized Colombia turned out to the polls like never before and, for the first time since the introduction of the second round, the tight outcome of the election remains undecided.
The preliminary count indicates, with clear numbers unlikely to be reversed, that Abelardo de la Espriella is the winner. His rival, Iván Cepeda, recognized the preliminary result, but stated that a definitive concession would only be made after the official counting of votes.
De la Espriella, who celebrated with a conciliatory tone, won according to these preliminary results and, although he cannot yet be officially declared president-elect, the numbers lead to four clear conclusions:
- the country is completely divided;
- Cepeda almost pulled off an upset;
- the vote count will be the most searched topic in the coming days;
- and voter turnout in Colombia is steadily increasing.
Tough dispute: polarization is the new rule, and governability is a challenge
Colombia appears to be joining the region: a deeply divided country, where two opposing sides face each other in elections.
Polarization, therefore, is the preponderant factor: the second round saw two sides emerge, leaving two halves.
To explain this, analyst Cristy Ramírez told CNN that voters are increasingly polarized, and each election seems to be “a battle for the soul or survival of the country.”
The challenge for De la Espriella, if confirmed as president-elect, is clear: governability. Analyst Andrés Flórez pointed out that, with a fragmented Congress, achieving majorities would be very difficult. The president needs to build consensus.
The difference with Cepeda is very small, around 250 thousand votes. But this, in terms of the electoral process, is enough to suggest that the official count will confirm the preliminary results.
There is no history or current suspicion of widespread errors or fraud, and the internationally praised Colombian system has sufficient safeguards to ensure the reliability of the preliminary count.
Conclusion: De la Espriella wins by a very narrow margin. And that means he won’t have absolute power.
A revealing statistic is that there were more blank votes (420 thousand) than the difference between the two candidates. This also demonstrates that, in a divided country, there are still people to be convinced.
And, to govern, as well as for future elections, politicians need to take this into account.
Will De la Espriella achieve the necessary consensus? Strategist Ángel Beccassino believes he will be able to change the combative tone of his campaign once he takes office.
“We cannot forget that De la Espriella is a highly qualified lawyer, with extensive experience in the drama of criminal trials,” he said.
Catalina Valencia, coordinator of the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation, says that De la Espriella has demonstrated a somewhat authoritarian style during his campaign and has little ability to reach consensus.
Flórez says he should act as president-elect and call for unity among Colombians.
De la Espriella in fact called for unity, declaring that there are no losers and that there will be no winners. He said he will respect the rights of those who did not vote for him and that he seeks to convince them with results.
Cepeda has recovered ground and aims for 2030
The ruling party candidate, Iván Cepeda, went from receiving 9.6 million votes in the first round to 12.6 million in the second: an increase of three million.
De la Espriella, on the other hand, went from 10.3 million to 12.9 million; that is, an increase of 2.6 million votes. This means that Cepeda has gained more ground.
Cepeda disposed of Petro’s legacy: he discarded the call for a National Constituent Assembly and softened his economic proposal.
Furthermore, he gave less prominence to his vice-presidential candidate, Aída Quilcué, who was criticized for allegedly not having the necessary academic or professional credentials to take on the role if she had to replace the president.
The candidate was also more open, changed his communication strategy and intensified his digital campaign. He also called for a message of dialogue and defense of life.
These changes worked to some extent. He convinced voters from other parties and some undecided voters. But, in the few days between the first and second round, it wasn’t enough.
De la Espriella’s approach of restoring security and being relentless in implementing necessary measures for the country prevailed.
And, in his speech on Sunday afternoon, after stating that he would only recognize the results after the final count, he behaved more like an opposition leader than a victorious candidate. He mentioned the defense of acquired rights and the policies of the Petro government.
Cepeda, who has served in Congress for two decades, is used to being leader of the opposition and, as noted by analyst Miguel Andrés Jaramillo Luján, he already envisions his candidacy in 2030.
And he maintained significant support. It is worth remembering that Cepeda emerged as the ruling party’s candidate less than a year ago.
And that is why, in his speech, he also invoked the image of Petro (thanking the “comrade president”) and, as Janiel Melamed analyzed in CNN, Cepeda understands that Petro remains a prominent figure.
Attention focused on the official investigation
For the first time, the word “investigation” is important, but the result would not change.
Since Colombia adopted the second round system (after the 1991 Constitution), this is the first time that the result was so close, with less than a percentage point separating the two candidates.
In 1994, Ernesto Samper defeated Andrés Pastrana by 2%, but voter turnout in that election was only 43%.
And as the preliminary count has indicated electoral results with certainty and speed, this is the first time that a president and a defeated candidate have talked about waiting for the official count.
Analyst Andrés Flórez claims that Petro’s message in this regard “is a trap”. Petro is not the country’s electoral authority, so his statement is just an opinion, although it is true that the result will only be official after the count is complete.
And this investigation needs to overcome the . But, again: the official count is unlikely to change the preliminary results.
Secretary Hernán Penagos explained to correspondent Fernando Ramos that it is practically impossible, due to the guarantee of the software and the monitoring of more than 1,600 international observers, that there is any discrepancy that could change De la Espriella’s victory.
Historical attendance
Voter turnout in Colombia increased by 15% compared to 2022. This is the highest voter turnout in the country’s history.
In the current climate of polarization, this says a lot about Colombian democracy and also highlights the challenges facing whoever comes to power.
People showed up at the polls like never before, and the opposition could not be ignored. Much less “dismantled”, as De la Espriella once said.
Around 63% of voters eligible to vote went to the polls, and abstention fell below 40% for the first time since the 1998 elections.
In a country where voting is not mandatory and abstention has always been a blemish on elections, the fact that more Colombians are voting now (even amid outrage and a contentious climate) means that the majority of voters are engaged in politics and that the decision is not made by just a few.
As long as there is no violence or clashes over the final results, even if the country is polarized, the elections will continue to be another component of the common denominator of the Colombian State, with all its deficiencies: the institutions are strong.
And the next president needs to remember that. Because to deal with the huge fiscal deficit left by Petro, he will need the full strength of institutions performing at their best.
