American President Donald Trump shared, this Tuesday (23), a text from the Newsmax portal pointing out the Brazilian presidential election as the next major focus of attention in Latin America. The publication argues that the likely victories of the right in Colombia and Peru would represent assets for the North American leader, and highlights Brazil as the next big test.
According to the text shared by Trump, the Brazilian election could drastically change the political map of Latin America. The article also cites other countries in the region that have elected right-wing governments since 2019.
Conditional support for research
For CNN International analyst Lourival Sant’Anna, Trump’s behavior follows a clear pattern: he declares support for right-wing candidates in a more blatant way only when these candidates have a good margin of advantage in the polls.
“He says: I don’t like being associated with losers,” Sant’Anna explained. It was for this reason, according to the analyst, that Trump distanced himself from Jair Bolsonaro when the STF upheld the trial, conviction and ineligibility of the former Brazilian president.
Sant’Anna also recalled that, after Bolsonaro’s removal, Trump approached the president, stating that both had in common the history of having been persecuted by the courts of their respective countries and having overcome these adversities.
Now, according to the analyst, Trump sees Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) candidacy as an opportunity to demonstrate his ability to elect right-wing presidents in the region.
“But he will only do this if he is sure of victory,” he said.
Colombian case as an example
Sant’Anna cited the to illustrate the risks of premature support.
When Trump declared support for Abelardo de la Espriella, the candidate had a lead of around 10 points in the polls. After the declaration, that margin evaporated.
“We cannot say for sure that it was a consequence of Trump’s statement, but we can certainly say that Trump’s statement did not help De La Espriella’s campaign,” said the analyst.
According to Sant’Anna, in general people do not appreciate interventions from other countries in their electoral processes, especially from a nation as powerful as the United States.
“Generally, the effect is the opposite of what was expected,” he said. The exception, in the analyst’s view, would be Argentina, a country that depended heavily on North American financial support to avoid insolvency, with billions of dollars granted by the IMF with support from the United States.
Interest from both sides
According to Sant’Anna, both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula would have, but for opposite reasons.
Flávio Bolsonaro would benefit because his electorate feels aligned with the republican identity. Lula, according to the analyst, would know that Trump’s support tends to take away votes from the supported candidate.
At the same time, Trump would like to maintain a good relationship with Brazil regardless of the electoral result, to consolidate himself as a regional leader without coming into conflict with the main country in Latin America.
