Statements by former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro against senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) provoked divergent assessments among allies of the pre-presidential candidate. While one wing of the PL minimizes the episode and claims that the party will be able to overcome the crisis, others privately admit that the public exposure of the conflict could make it difficult for Flávio to reach out to female voters, considered strategic for the campaign.
In the opinion of campaign members, Michelle has a political heritage that is difficult to replace among evangelical women and PL Mulher leaders. An ally sums up the concern by saying that the episode affects precisely a constituency that Flávio “couldn’t lose under any circumstances”. The assessment is that a possible distancing of the former first lady could have repercussions among these groups and reduce one of the campaign’s main political assets.
Despite this, the PL management seeks to minimize the crisis. The leader of the party in the Chamber, Sóstenes Cavalcante (PL-RJ), said he trusts that the party will be able to overcome the episode “with a lot of patience and balance”.
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— Normally, the party is bigger than individuals.
At the same time, he recognized that the public exposure of the conflict was not positive.
— It is not normal for internal matters to be exposed on social media. But I have full confidence that the party will know how to take the next steps with balance – he stated.
Despite the position of the party leadership, not all allies share the same assessment. Federal deputy Zé Trovão (PL-SC) is among those who see electoral risks in the crisis. According to him, the family dispute should remain restricted to the private environment and ends up diverting the opposition’s focus at a time when the country is facing economic and public security problems.
— This is harmful, it’s bad, it tarnishes an image. Because when you take Michelle’s speech saying that Flávio was disrespectful to her, this all generates a little resistance to Flávio for the women who watch. And we know that President Bolsonaro already had this difficulty with the female audience, precisely because he was a harsher guy. Now such a situation happens. This image is very bad for Flávio,” he said.
The parliamentarian also classified the dispute as a demonstration of a lack of maturity on both sides.
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— It looks like kids fighting at school and taking that fight to social media. There is a lack of emotional maturity, there is a lack of political maturity. I really admire Miss Michelle, but I also understand that she suffers a lot of attacks. There comes a time when a person gets tired,” he said.
Despite the concern of part of the allies, another wing of Bolsonarism has a different reading of the episode. An interlocutor close to the pre-campaign core believes that Michelle would be reinforcing her own political weight by making her disagreement with Flávio public. In this person’s assessment, the former first lady would be, in a subtle way, “valuing” her support and demonstrating that she continues to be an indispensable leader within the group, expanding her “power”, her “visibility” and her influence on the direction of Bolsonarism.
There are also allies who point out that Michelle, despite criticizing her stepson, ended the video by reaffirming support for Flávio’s presidential pre-candidacy. Senator Damares Alves (Republicanos-DF), one of the former first lady’s main allies, praised the way she decided to approach the episode.
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— At the right time and in the right way. With clarity and maturity.
Michelle’s Offensive
The evaluations were motivated by the video published by Michelle on social media on Wednesday. In the recording, the former first lady stated that she decided to break the silence to respond to the attacks suffered in recent months and detailed an episode that occurred after taking a stance against an alliance between the PL and former minister Ciro Gomes (PSDB) in Ceará.
According to Michelle, Flávio published criticisms against her on social media without looking for her first and, when the two finally spoke on the phone, the senator was reportedly harsh.
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— He was very harsh, disrespectful and mistreated me on the phone. I hadn’t done anything to him. He said it would be better for me to stay out of the party’s decisions. He said I had arrived yesterday and didn’t understand anything about politics,” he said.
Michelle also said that, since that conversation, she has never looked for her stepson again and that, despite the episode, she continues to support his candidacy for President of the Republic. At the end of the recording, she thanked the state and municipal leaders of PL Mulher for the support that, according to her, they have been giving to Flávio’s pre-candidacy.
In the video, Michelle also stated that Flávio and his brothers Carlos and Eduardo Bolsonaro criticized her in a coordinated way after she took a stand against an alliance between the PL and Ciro Gomes in Ceará. According to the former first lady, she apologized if her stepchildren felt offended, but maintained the assessment that the rapprochement with the former minister is incompatible with the values defended by Bolsonarism.
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The episode has its origins in an impasse that began at the end of last year, when Michelle began to publicly criticize the negotiations conducted by directors of the Ceará PL to build an alliance with Ciro Gomes. At the time, the former first lady entered into a collision course with Flávio, Carlos and Eduardo Bolsonaro, who defended the articulation. Days later, Flávio apologized to Michelle and the party suspended the conversations.
The concern is directly related to one of the main challenges of Flávio’s campaign. Members of the senator’s political core recognize that he still faces difficulties in expanding his acceptance among female voters, a segment in which internal polls and surveys by research institutions indicate a lower performance than that recorded by his main opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The assessment is that, to overtake the PT member, Flávio will need to reduce this difference throughout the campaign.
In this scenario, Michelle was seen by PL members as one of the main bridges to reduce this resistance. At the head of PL Mulher since 2023, the former first lady built a national network of female leaders, expanded the acronym’s presence among women and consolidated influence over the evangelical electorate, considered one of the pillars of Bolsonarism. The expectation among allies was that she would play a central role in the strategy of bringing Flávio closer to this public during the campaign.
This bet had gained strength with the entry of Senator Damares Alves (Republicanos-DF) in the area dedicated to programs aimed at women and human rights in Flávio’s pre-campaign. Very close to Michelle, Damares was seen by members of the group as an interlocutor capable of reducing the distance between stepmother and stepson and encouraging more active participation by the former first lady in the presidential campaign. The video released by Michelle, however, increased uncertainty about this strategy.
The video marks another chapter in the internal disagreements surrounding Jair Bolsonaro amid the construction of the senator’s presidential candidacy. Although allies insist that the crisis will be overcome, the predominant assessment is that it will be up to Michelle to define the degree of involvement she will have in her stepson’s campaign in the coming months.
A few weeks ago, when asked whether she would get involved in Flávio’s presidential campaign, Michelle replied that she would only participate “at the right time”, without detailing when or how this would happen. After the release of the video, allies admit that the intensity of this support once again became one of the main unknowns of the pre-campaign.
