The senator () faces difficulties in expanding his political presence in the Northeast, with candidates for undefined governments in four states, fragile platforms and allies reticent in their ostensible support for his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic.
The region is an electoral stronghold and was decisive in the president’s victory in 2022. The PT member secured a front of 12.6 million votes in the Northeast in the dispute with (PL) and is working to at least repeat the feat.
With less than a month to go before the start of the party conventions, the Bolsonarist camp remains without candidates for government in four northeastern states: , , and .
In Ceará, talks for an alliance with the former minister (PSDB) remain on the back burner amid an internal dispute in the PL between Flávio and (PL), revealed last Wednesday (24) in a video published by the former first lady.
The PL’s support for Ciro between Flávio and Michelle. In the video, he reported having been mistreated and humiliated by his stepson on the phone after a speech, in November 2025, in which he defended an alliance with Eduardo Girão (Novo).
Flávio defends a pragmatic alliance with the toucan, but Ciro has signaled that he will not climb onto the senator’s platform. “I’m from the PSDB, how am I going to participate in a campaign event that isn’t my party’s?”, said Ciro when asked by the press about the matter.
The scenario also remains cloudy in Maranhão. Bolsonarista Lahesio Bonfim (Novo) gave up running for government and is negotiating a candidacy for the Senate on the ticket of former mayor of São Luís Eduardo Braide (PSD), who has avoided linking his campaign to the national scene.
The local PL is led by federal deputy Josimar de Maranhãozinho, who this week said he supports two of Lula’s allies for the Senate: senator Weverton Rocha () and former minister André Fufuca (PP).
In Pernambuco, the PL does not have a candidate for governor in an election that should be marked by polarization between the governor (PSD) and the former mayor of Recife, (PSB) – both allies of Lula.
The party’s candidate for government in 2022, Anderson Ferreira withdrew from the majority race and will run for federal deputy. Other party names also target the legislature.
Ferreira states that the PL must have a candidate for the government or the Senate, and highlights the contribution of the most conservative sectors in the victory of Raquel Lyra in 2022 and João Campos in Recife in 2020: “The right in Pernambuco has been decisive in the elections.”
In neighboring Alagoas, the PL lost muscle after the disaffiliation of the former mayor of Maceió, João Henrique Caldas, who migrated to the PSDB. With a close relationship with Bolsonaro’s children, he remains distant from the national dispute and focuses on the clash with the former minister ().
Federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL) rehearses a double for the Senate alongside the former president of the Chamber, (PP). The ticket does not have a candidate for governor.
The party also suffered losses in . The former mayor of Itabaiana, Valmir de Francisquinho, the main opposition to governor Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), left the PL for the Republicans after losing control of the party.
Isolated, the PL launched the candidacy of the vice-mayor of Aracaju, Ricardo Marques, who will not have the support of mayor Emília Corrêa, who also migrated to the Republicans.
The expectation is for an uncompetitive candidacy also in Piauí, where the PL launched the candidacy of journalist Toni Rodrigues. The main opposition parties to governor Rafael Fonteles (PT) will be with Joel Rodrigues (PP), who did not support Flávio Bolsonaro.
In Bahia, the PL sealed an alliance with (União Brasil) in the dispute against the governor (PT). The former mayor of Salvador adopted a strategy of distancing himself from the national dispute and signaled support for the name of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with whom he is a friend.
At the beginning of June, Flávio, agricultural fair in Luís Eduardo Magalhães, west of the state. ACM Neto, however, visited the city just two days later, and did not cross paths with his ally.
The former mayor of Salvador has been pressured by Bolsonarists to climb onto Flávio’s platform, but allies see risks in this movement, which could alienate Lulista voters dissatisfied with Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues.
Flávio’s two most structured platforms in the region are in and , states where the PL gained strength with new cadres from parties in the center.
Efraim Filho left União Brasil for PL to run for government of Paraíba. Since then, he has been running a campaign alongside Flávio Bolsonaro, who is expected to hold a political event in early July in Campina Grande, the second largest city in the state.
In Rio Grande do Norte, the PL is running for government with Álvaro Dias, former mayor of Natal who left the Republicans in March. He enters the dispute as the main name on the right in a state governed for eight years by governor Fátima Bezerra (PT).
In the assessment of political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí, the difficulties faced by Flávio Bolsonaro in the Northeast are not only a result of the PT’s electoral strength, but also the pragmatism of regional leaders.
“For the interior and for state party structures, what rules is the very specific, very physiological pragmatism of the so-called Centrão”, he states. According to him, some of the region’s politicians prefer to maintain good relations with the federal government and avoid associations that could generate electoral costs.
The researcher emphasizes that the Northeast should not be treated as a homogeneous bloc and says that the region is experiencing a “double speed political geography”, marked by the coexistence of a still strong Lulism in the interior and a growth of Bolsonarism in urban areas, driven by themes such as public security, economic freedom and conservative agendas.
“The PT is still hegemonic in the Northeast, but the ceiling of Bolsonarism has risen.”
