The president () appears with 47% of voting intentions in a second round simulation with the senator (-RJ), who scores 44%. The data comes from a new BTG/Nexus survey released this Monday (29), which again records a technical tie between the two main candidates for the presidential seat.
The difference between the two narrowed from 6 points to 3 points. In mid-June, the PT member had 49%, while the former president’s son (PL) had 43%.
In the first round scenario, the current president maintains the lead, with 42%, the same percentage as in the last round. The congressman comes next, with 34% of intentions, after scoring 33% in the last measurement, an oscillation within the margin of error.
The survey was carried out by telephone, from June 26th to 27th, with 2,009 voters residing nationwide. The margin of error is two percentage points, and the confidence interval is 95%. The survey is registered under code BR-08521/2026.
Still in the first round scenario, after Lula and Flávio, they appear confused (), with 5%; (Mission), with 4%; and (), with 3%. Joaquim Barbosa (DC), (), () and (Mobiliza) each have 1%. Blanks, nulls and none add up to 5%. 3% do not know or did not know how to answer.
In an alternative first-round configuration tested by Nexus, the same pattern repeats itself. Lula has 42%, and Flávio has 35%. Caiado and Renan appear with 5%, while Zema has 3%. Barbosa scores 2%. Blanks, nulls and none are 5%. 3% do not know or did not know how to answer.
In addition to Flávio, the PT member would beat any of the names tested in a possible second round dispute. Against Caiado, he appears with 47% to 39%. If Zema were the opponent, Lula would have 48% to 38% of Minas Gerais. In the case of Renan, the current president would score 48% to 36%.
The interview field was carried out after two events with potential impact on the election: one against the then leader of the government in the Senate, (PT), and one criticizing Flávio.
