For the most optimistic who believe that the Brazilian team’s six-peat could come in 2026, the dream seems like it won’t happen. At least that’s what the statistical model of the master’s students shows. Fundação Getulio Vargas School of Applied Mathematics (FGV EMAp). According to the results obtained, the Brazil is in 7th position to take the World Cup trophy for the sixth time.
Brazil, which always enters the competition as one of the big favorites, appears behind:
- 1st Argentina – 19.66%
- 2nd Spain – 14.77%
- 3rd France – 11.44%
- 4th England – 8.05%
- 5th Colombia 6.66%
- 6th Portugal – 5.59%
- 7th Brazil – 5.42%
Closing the Top 10 are Germany, with 4.04%, Morocco, with 3.88% and the Netherlands, with 3.74%.
Brazil started the World Cup in ninth place, with a 4.14% chance of being champion. However, the victory over Haiti, 3-0, and over Scotland, also 3-0 – a result that guaranteed the Seleção in the second phase at the top of Group C – caused Carlo Ancelotti’s team to rise in the rankings.
The study developed by a group of master’s students from the School of Applied Mathematics at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV EMAp) estimates the probabilities of the World Cup results.
To create the model, performance data from 2,997 matches between 187 FIFA teams over the last four years was used, giving greater weight to more recent matches and gradually reducing the statistical relevance of older matches.
Matches such as qualifiers and continental tournaments are given greater importance than friendlies, as they more accurately reflect the real level of the teams, following official FIFA criteria.
Brazil x Japan
The Brazilian team faces Japan this Monday (29). The game is scheduled to take place at 2pm and is eliminatory. A defeat ends Brazil’s dream of being six-time champions, if they win, they advance to the round of 16.
The two teams have already faced each other four times in the history of the World Cup, and the Canary Islands have an advantage over their opponents and have never lost. But, in the most recent clash between the two teams, held in October 2025, Brazil was defeated by the Japanese in a comeback. The Seleção opened 2-0, but lost 3-0.
According to the FGV study, the The Brazilian team’s chance of advancing to the round of 16 is 55.91% against 44.09% in Japan.
Brazil’s chances
Round of 16: 55.91%
Quarterfinals: 39.15%
Semifinal: 21,39%
Final: 10,69%
Champion: 5.42%
Disapproval of the Selection
Contrary to what was expected, the Seleção’s first victory in the World Cup made Brazilians’ distrust of Carlo Ancelotti’s team increase even more. According to the new round of the study “I saw Brazil – The country of football?”, carried out by the market research agency IMO Insights and published by Agência Brasil, the Confidence plummeted 17 percentage points compared to before the World Cup (37% to 20%).
Feelings of excitement (drop from 41% to 28%), joy (38% to 27%) and hope (45% to 35%) also showed significant drops in comparison with the pre-world cup.
Before the World Cup started, a survey by the Quaest Institute showed that 72% of Brazilians did not believe in winning the sixth championship. Only 25% show confidence in a sixth world title, the lowest rate recorded in almost three decades.
The survey interviewed 2,004 people in 120 Brazilian municipalities between April 9 and 13, 2026. The confidence level is 95%, with a margin of error of two percentage points. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-09285/2026.
