Donald Trump com Xi Jinping
Trump wants peace in Ukraine and is he willing to make peace with China? There are more questions than answers.
The President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, invited the president of China, Xi Jinpingfor his inauguration, on January 20, in a surprising move that appears to be part of a plan to involve Beijing in the ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, writes the
Shortly after his recent meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, Trump: “There must be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations must begin” and “China can help.” This last remark suddenly took on more significance after Trump extended the unusual invitation for the foreign leader to participate in the Jan. 20 ceremony.
Leaving aside the question of to know whether Xi will accept Trump’s invitation to Washington DC (he probably won’t accept it), the more important question is whether he will actually help Trump end the Russian war against Ukraine.
China maintained a strong economic and trade relationship with Russia throughout the war and refrained from criticizing Putin. Although he has denied providing military assistance to Moscow, there are reports that suggest that China allowed the sending of some goods to Russia that can be used on the battlefield.
At first glance, Trump’s initiative and what China recently put on the table with Brazil seem like two reasonably well-aligned peace proposals.
Both appeal to a ceasefire along current front linesfollowed by negotiations for a permanent agreement. Both appear to accept Russia’s demand to freeze the territorial status quo, which would mean that Ukraine would lose the approximately 20% of its territory that Moscow’s forces have illegally occupied since 2014.
Kiev and Beijing
Ukraine and most of its Western partners continue to reject this demand, considering it unacceptable. Before Trump’s electoral victory, this was a tenable position because the West managed to prevent Ukraine from being militarily defeated on the battlefield.
This position may be slowly changing, but it is not clear that China will suddenly become a welcome partner for the West in any peace negotiations — much less for Ukraine.
Kiev has always been suspicious of China and its international policies, from the “Belt and Road” economic and trade initiative to the recent peace proposal. Zelenskyy called the China-Brazil peace initiative “destructive.” He also accused China and Brazil of being “pro-Russian”.
Zelenskyy is personally very committed to his own peace plan, especially since Ukrainians have made enormous sacrifices in the war so far. This fact does not exclude the possibility of compromises, but makes concessions to China very unlikelywidely seen by Ukrainians as one of Russia’s main supporters in the war.
Even if there were a sudden change of heart in Kiev, it is highly doubtful that a Trump-brokered deal would serve Beijing’s interests. For Xi, it is always about reinforcing China’s role and influence as a world power. If the war ends, China will be worried that the US may focus even more on its trade war with Beijing.
To date, the war in Ukraine has allowed China to benefit from the pressure it has exerted on the West.
Suggestions from the US that it will backtrack on its alliance commitments in Europe have raised doubts about the reliability of the USA as an ally of Ukraine. This issue is becoming more acute as Trump prepares to move into the White House.
The longer the war in Ukraine continues in this way, the longer China will reap the benefits of reducing the relative weight of the United States as its main geopolitical and geoeconomic rival.
In contrast, a Carefully managed continuation of the war against Ukraine benefits China in affirming its global leadership.
China’s approach to managing the “Ukraine crisis” was reiterated by Xi at the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, and in a meeting with former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Beijing on December 12, 2024.
The objective is to maintain “three fundamental principles: do not expand the battlefields, do not increase hostilities and don’t fan the flamesand strive to quickly defuse the situation.”
What does China gain from this?
This is a far cry from the end of the war as predicted by Trump. A Trump-brokered deal would likely allow the lifting of sanctions and the possibility of renewed and more cooperative relations between the West and Russia.
It would significantly strengthen Putin’s position, contribute to Russia’s international rehabilitation, reduce his country’s dependence on China, and potentially reignite historical rivalries between Russia and China. THE Trump’s statement that he wants to “disunite” Russia and China will not have gone unnoticed in Beijing.
And even if Trump failed to drive a wedge between Russia and China, a stronger Kremlin would mean a shift in the power dynamics in the partnership between Moscow and Beijing, potentially elevating Putin from junior partner to Xi’s peer.
From a Chinese perspective, helping Trump broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine offers few incentives other than the possibility of easing the U.S. trade and tariff war against the country. Draining the West of resources to defend Ukraine moves it away from the Indo-Pacific regionwhere most of the competition between China and the USA will take place.
Xi has no interest in seeing Putin strategically defeated in Ukraine, but keeping Russia bogged down in its war against Ukraine will ensure that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow remains on current terms, with the balance of power tilted toward China.
Maintaining the war in Ukraine, rather than helping Trump end it, is therefore the most likely choice Beijing will make.
