The forecast for this year had a slight increase, from 4.59% to 4.62%; target established by the Central Bank is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down
The forecast for Brazil’s official inflation in 2024, as released by , had a slight increase, going from 4.59% to 4.62%. For the following years, expectations were also adjusted: in 2025, the projection for the IPCA rose from 4.03% to 4.10%, while for 2026, the expectation increased from 3.61% to 3.65%. The inflation target established by the Central Bank is 3.00% for the years 2025 to 2026, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points. Among the economists who present the most accurate forecasts, the expectation for inflation in 2024 increased from 4.53% to 4.56%.
For 2025, the projection remained at 4.00%, and for 2026, the expectation is 3.70%. With regard to the Selic rate, estimates were set at 11.75% for the end of 2024, 11.50% for 2025 and an increase from 9.75% to 10.00% in 2026. Domestic Product growth Gross GDP (GDP) for 2024 was maintained at 3.10%. For 2025, there was a small adjustment, going from 1.93% to 1.94%, while the expectation for 2026 is 2.00%. In the second quarter of 2023, Brazilian GDP recorded growth of 1.4%, indicating a moderate economic recovery.
Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate were also revised. For 2024, the expectation rose from R$5.50 to R$5.55. In 2025, the projection went from R$5.43 to R$5.48, and for 2026, the estimate remained at R$5.40. More accurate economists maintained their forecasts at R$5.75 for 2024, but raised expectations to R$5.83 in 2025 and R$6.00 in 2026.
*Report produced with the help of AI
Published by Fernando Dias
