Putin finds his own nuclear escalation ceiling

Putin finds his own nuclear escalation ceiling

The presidents of Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, respectively, signed last Friday a treaty with mutual security guarantees that contemplates, among other things, the possible use of nuclear weapons in the event of an external threat.

The two leaders sealed this new commitment after a meeting in Minsk. As Putin has highlighted, the text includes “mutual obligations” aimed at “guaranteeing the defense, protecting the sovereignty, independence and constitutional order” of the two neighboring countries, for which “all available forces and means” could be used. .

Russia, which has already deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus after the start of the military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, also plans to send Oreshnik missiles to Belarusian territory, a new ballistic projectile that Russian forces have already tested in their offensive against Ukraine. and that Moscow wants to mass produce.

President Vladimir Putin has dedicated much of his recent public appearances to praising new Russian weapons that are “almost like nuclear weapons.” The head of the Kremlin spoke about the deployment of the Oreshnik (Hazelnut), which was, so to speak, presented to society on November 21 when it was used to attack an arms factory in eastern Ukraine, when its serial production had practically just been approved. .

“We are particularly concerned about the situation in Europe. In particular, of course, in Ukraine. Western countries intentionally instigate tensions (…) Irresponsible policies are bringing the world to the brink of a global conflict,” he said. Putin.

“Nuclear blackmail and bravado on Russian talk shows and official Telegram channels play a positive role in moderate doses for the regime and for Putin personally,” according to the outlet. . The abstract threat leads to a concrete pride in Russia’s military capabilities and a sense of participation in this power. But this does not translate to the real plane.

In March 2023, the Russian Institute for Analysis and Conflictology asked people if they would support a nuclear strike against Ukraine and NATO countries. An absolute majority of 88% of Russians would not support the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

After all, nuclear warheads will not distinguish between who is saved and who is not. “In this way, Putin has taken the escalation to the ceiling set not by the West, but by his own society,” the same media highlights.

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