Amid doubts about his health after undergoing surgery, the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads voters’ preference for the 2026 elections, according to a new round of the Genial/Quaest survey, released this Thursday (12).
The results of the survey, carried out between the 4th and 9th of December, show that among the respondents who know Lula, 52% would vote for his re-election, compared to 45% who would not vote. Among those who know the former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL)currently ineligible and subject of investigation by the Federal Police, 37% would vote for him, and 57% would not vote – the biggest rejection among the names suggested in the survey.
The interviews were carried out during the same period in which Quaest also evaluated , after the announcement of tax measures and exemption from Income Tax for those earning up to R$5,000 per month.
Next among the most preferred potential candidates is the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT)the most popular name among those interviewed to run for the position if Lula is not a candidate, with 31% responding that they would vote, and 52% that they would not vote. The minister has the same rejection of Ciro Gomes (PDT)who obtained 29% of the preference of voters who know him, and was the second most defended name to be the government candidate in 2026.
Top choice among respondents to run for Jair Bolsonaro if he remains ineligible until 2026, Michele Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 28% of preference among those who know it, and 51% of rejection. 21% said they did not know her. Already 25% said they know and would vote for Pablo Marçal (PRTB)another tipped to represent the right in the next presidential election, and 43% said no. 32% said they didn’t know who he was.
The current governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)another possible name listed by respondents to compete in Bolsonaro’s place, is one of the names with the greatest potential for growth, with 45% saying they don’t know him. Among those who know, 22% would vote for him, and 33% would not vote.
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Should Lula run again?
The survey also asked respondents whether President Lula should run for a new term. The majority continues to say no, but the number fell from 58% to 52% in relation to the survey carried out in October. Those who say yes grew from 40% to 45%.
The growing trend in the opinion that Lula should run for re-election occurs despite the increase in the number of people who regret having voted for him in 2022: from 7% in December 2023, to 9% of those interviewed a year later. The percentage of regrets among Jair Bolsonaro voters, however, rose even more in the same period: from 6% to 11%.
Methodology
Quaest carried out 8,598 face-to-face interviews between December 4th and 9th, with voters who voted for Lula, Bolsonaro or blank/null in the 2022 elections. The margin of error is one percentage point.
