At the beginning of December, the traffic at the Russian naval base in Tartusin Syriashowed a unusual increase of activity. At least two frigates, a submarine and two supply ships left the port last week and, as of December 10, they had not returned.
This movement occurs in a context of growing instability in Syria, where rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) s.
confirm that several Russian navy vessels are anchored in the open sea off the Syrian coast. Simultaneously, the air traffic at the Khmeimim baseanother crucial facility for Russia in Syria, has also increased. On December 8, three Il-76 transport aircraft and one An-124 landed at the base and returned to Russia on the same daycrossing Turkish airspace.
Markku Kangaspurodirector of the Alexander Institute, that these movements indicate that Russia could be moving its most valuable material to a safe place faced with the possibility of not reaching agreements with the new dominant forces in the region. “It is very possible that Russia will evacuate its equipment and personnel,” he says.
Blow to Russian strategy: purges expected among elites
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime represents a severe setback for Russia. According to Kangaspuro, this fact highlights the Moscow’s inability to maintain its influence in Syria and manages conflicts on two frontsgiven that the war in Ukraine has absorbed much of its military resources.
“For African and Middle Eastern countries cooperating with Russia, this could be a sign that Moscow cannot guarantee stability or security to authoritarian regimes“, develops the analyst. In addition, it is speculated that this internal crisis could trigger purges in the elite and the Russian army: “Russia will have to deal with a lot of dirty laundry and, as usual, heads will surely roll“.
Bases at risk
Tartus and Khmeimim are pillars of the Russian military presence in the Mediterranean and Middle East. in Tartuestablished in 1971 under the leadership of Hafez al-Assad, is the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean. Expanded in 2008 and reinforced during the 2010s, this base has been essential to support the Al-Assad regime during the civil war. The huge investments now threaten to lose it, warns Kangaspuro.
On the other hand, the air base of Khmeimimbuilt in 2015, has been key to Russian operations in Syria and Africaserving as a maintenance and refueling point. If Russia loses control of these facilities, it will have to look for bases alternativeswhich would imply high costs and considerable time.
The future of both bases now depends on the negotiations with new leaders of Syria. Although Türkiye and other actors have temporarily guaranteed base security during the transition, It is not clear whether he will agree to respect previous agreements.
“Russia is probably trying to reach some kind of agreement barter with the HTS organization, where Russia recognizes the rebel administration and supplies it with food aid and, in return, retains its base“, Argumenta Kangaspuro.
