China’s nuclear arsenal has surpassed 600 operational warheads, a large increase from the 500 estimated last year, according to the Pentagon’s China Military Power Report 2024. This growth keeps Beijing in on track to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030, as US defense officials predicted in 2021.
Beyond the increase in the number of warheads, the report highlights China’s efforts to build a versatile nuclear force. This includes a wide range of delivery systems, from precision strike missiles with low payloads to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of hitting distant targets. “What they are trying to build is a diversified nuclear force,” said a senior US defense official.
China claims to maintain a policy of nuclear “no first use”promising to deploy nuclear weapons only as retaliation in the face of a nuclear attack. However, the rapid growth of its arsenal has alarmed Washington, especially since Beijing has not participated in talks on arms control, a key mechanism used by the United States and Russia during the Cold War to prevent nuclear proliferation. In contrast, the strategic treaty between the United States and Russia limits their active arsenals to 1,550 warheads, although both countries stockpile thousands more.
Advances to overcome US defenses
The report also notes that China is developing advanced systems to counter US missile defenses, including hypersonic glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombardments, technologies that make it difficult to detect or track a nuclear attack.
These developments, along with tests such as the one carried out in 2021 with a hypersonic missile, position China as an emerging threat that could alter the global strategic balance. Meanwhile, in the United States, the debate over modernizing its own nuclear triad is ongoing, with projected expenditures of $1.5 trillion over the next 30 years.
