Geopolitics or trade are behind the attack against the Panama Canal. The US president-elect is sending a message to Latin America that it has to align with US interests in the face of the seemingly inevitable, and perhaps also pushing for a negotiation on tolls or for the Central American country to welcome migrants heading North.
This is how analysts consulted by EFE understand the complaint expressed by Trump over the weekend about the “scam” of tariffs and China’s alleged interference in the interoceanic waterway, for which he threatened to demand that it be “returned” to the United States if the Panamanian officials do not act accordingly.
The United States is the main user of the channel. He built and managed it until , which was achieved thanks to the Torrijos-Carter Treaties of 1977.
Trump’s threats come when Panama has just commemorated, on December 20, the 35th anniversary of the US invasion of the country to capture dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega on drug trafficking charges, which left between 500 and 4,000 dead, and when few are missing days for the 25th anniversary of the channel transfer.
The position of the Republican leader should not be seen from the perspective of traditional politics, “it must be understood in a pragmatic way, as Germany, France, etc. have done,” since Trump “is trying to negotiate in his own way,” he said. Panamanian economist and professor Eddie Tapiero told EFE. “We have to work on it pragmatically, understanding the situation, seeking international alliances,” says the Panamanian analyst.
The Panamanian president, José Raúl Mulino, has already stated that the “Panama Canal and its adjacent areas belong to Panama and will continue to be so,” and that neither China, the European Community nor the United States have “direct or indirect control” over it. United States or any other power.
Geopolitics, China and American hawks
Trump, who will take office on January 20 for his second term, is sending “a message to Latin America that it has to align itself with the interests of the United States, which will enter into an inevitable trade war with China,” economist Carlos Araúz told EFE.
This issue “goes far beyond tolls: Trump communicates a message about what the protectionist policy of the United States will be for the next 4 years.”
For Tapiero, Trump’s thesis about China and the canal may be related to the fact that the Panamanian ports of Balboa and Cristóbal are operated by Hutchison Wampoa, a firm based in Hong Kong, something that does not affect the Canal Authority. of Panama, “which manages independently and does not maintain commercial or financial ties.”
“This is the geopolitical edge,” Trump’s cabinet “is made up of many anti-China hawks, but developing countries cannot remain in the middle of the fights of the giants because we need markets to develop,” Tapiero tells EFE.
Former president and Republican candidate for the 5N US elections, Donald Trump, during the rally at Madison Square Garden (New York).
Tolls and industrial policy
According to Trump, the tolls charged by the canal are “exorbitant.” Mulino responded that the rates “are not a whim,” they are established “in open hearing” with customers “considering market conditions,” and they cover “operational and road modernization costs.”
The Republican would be “trying to negotiate, I think the canal is very important for his policy, to keep prices low for the development of the industrial policy of the United States,” in Tapiero’s opinion.
Araúz believes that there is little room for negotiation in this area, since “tolls are determined by the board of governors where the United States has a representative, and the shipping companies have representatives. Not even the Panamanian Government has anything to say about the toll. of the Panama Canal”.
“Inflation is going to skyrocket and eventually it will cost the average American much more to live in their own country” but because of Trump’s protectionist policy, he adds.
The migration crisis
Thousands of irregular migrants travel through Panama every year traveling to the United States. The country already refused during Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021) to welcome this population while they process their legal entry into the United States, an initiative that the Republican leader intends to revive.
Irregular migration “would be one of the negotiation points that (Trump) is looking for, perhaps seeing a mechanism that could get there” with Panama, says Tapiero.
The immigration issue “has to be attacked in coordination (…) if a solution is going to be imposed from the perspective of only one side, it will most likely fail,” says Araúz.
Mulino asserted that with the new United States government he aspires “to preserve and maintain a respectful relationship” and that security issues such as illegal migration, drug trafficking, terrorism and organized crime have “priority” on the bilateral agenda.
