Some 3.8 million Croatians are called to the polls this Sunday to elect the president of this Balkan country in the first round of an election in which the current head of state, the populist Zoran Milanovic, starts as the great favorite in the polls. The most recent survey, published shortly before midnight, when the day of electoral silence came into force, sees Milanovic in a comfortable first place with 37% of the votes, 17 percentage points ahead of his main rival, the scientist Dragan Primorac, which would get 20%.
In total they are eight candidates who compete to access the presidential position, which Croatian legislation establishes with mainly representative functions, but also with certain powers in foreign policy, and defense as head of the armed forces. Be that as it may, the polls predict that tomorrow none will obtain the absolute majority necessary to be named president, Therefore, the two most voted, presumably Milanovic and Primorac, will go to the second round of voting, scheduled for next January 12.
Among the other candidates, the independent conservative Marija Selak Raspudic and Ivana Kekin, from the center-left Mozemo ( Podemos ) party, stand out, each with around 10% support. Milanovic, a 58-year-old jurist and diplomat who served as prime minister between 2011 and 2015, is also expected to win in the second round.
A populist president and…
Since assuming the head of state in 2020, Milanovic, who is running as a candidate for the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) and nine small center-left parties, has taken a turn towards increasingly populist, nationalist and Eurosceptic positions.
His rejection of military aid to Ukraine approved by the Government of the conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and his expressions of understanding towards some of the Kremlin’s policies have led the prime minister, the conservative Andrej Plenkovic, to accuse him of having become “a piece of the Russian game.
Plenkovic’s HDZ, which he has been in office since last May his third termis the dominant force in Croatian politics since the country gained independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991 and its presidential candidate is Primorac. This 59-year-old geneticist, forensic doctor and university professor with no political charisma and who between 2003 and 2009 was Minister of Science and Education, promises to support the European policy of the Plenkovic Government, weighed down by a series of corruption scandals.
…antagonist of the conservative government
Without any surprises and with the perspective that everything will continue as it is, the electoral campaign has been marked above all by the antagonism and even animosity between the current president and the prime minister.
Milanovic has tried to profit from corruption scandals who have forced the resignations of several ministers of Plenkovic’s Executive, whom he has accused of servility towards Brussels. Although he promises loyalty to Croatia’s allies in the EU and NATO, he said he believes that this does not mean becoming, like Plenkovic, a “puppet of others.”
The differences between both politicians are especially clear with respect to support for Ukraine in its defense of the Russian invasion: while The Government is in favor of delivering weapons to kyiv, the president is against. An example of these tensions is the veto with which Milanovic prevented the participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO mission to support Ukraine last October.
The vote on December 29 is the third to which Croats have been called this year, after the early legislative elections in April and the elections to the European Parliament in June. The country’s 6,755 polling stations will be open between 07:00 and 19:00 local time (06:00-18:00 GMT). It is expected that immediately after its closure the first exit polls will be published.
