After 466 days of Israel’s military incursion into the Gaza Strip, in response to the brutal Hamas attacks of October 7 that claimed the lives of 1,200 people and another 251 were taken hostage, and after 46,600 Palestinians died – the majority women and children – and 110,000 injured; The possibility of a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave is very real. After 15 months of indelible destruction and horror.
All the symptoms have been put on the table in recent weeks, fostering a feeling in the international community that we are not facing another false step or last-minute unexpected turn that will ruin everything. The main Israeli media assume that there will be an agreement imminently.
The main political actors in the conflict also believe this. The Government of Qatar, one of the main interlocutors, stated this Tuesday that “it is closer than at any other time in the past”, while Hamas speaks of a “final stage”. The outgoing US president, Democrat Joe. His last foreign policy speech in which he has not hidden what is the finishing touch with which he wants to say goodbye to his controversial mandate. Achieve a truce in Gaza and materialize a peace plan that calms the turbulent situation in the Middle East.
Something that Biden has not achieved despite having threatened and carried out an unprecedented tug-of-war with the Israeli president, a Benjamin Netanyahu who eagerly awaits the arrival of a Donald Trump more inclined to Israeli interests. Interests that go beyond security in their own region and are promoted by ultranationalist or directly Zionist groups that defend the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank.
These are the keys to everything that would have been agreed regarding dates, release of hostages, withdrawal of troops from the Strip and the biggest unknown. The future relationship with the occupied Palestinian territories.
What day is the ceasefire scheduled to begin?
According to relevant media such as or the progressive newspaper the agreement for a ceasefire is a reality that even already has a scheduled start date. Next Thursday, the 16th of this January, that is, in two days, although there are other publications that suggest that the agreement could already be announced this Tuesday, the 14th. This is what the New York newspaper itself suggests. .
How many hostages taken by Hamas and how would they be released?
The issue of hostages has been the factor that most influenced previous talks – both those that reached a successful conclusion in the early stages of the conflict and those that did not – but it has also been an element of pressure on the Israeli Executive, a coalition of formations in which Netanyahu’s Likud depends on ultras formations and in which any fissure in keeping the operation on Gaza active or reducing armed pressure ignites the anger and threats of its allies.
According to The Times of Israelwhat has been agreed so far includes the release of three hostages on the day the ceasefire is activated, expectedly on Thursday. In fact, local media report that preparations are already being made at the Egyptian Rafah crossing for that delivery. This gesture must be responded to by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with a withdrawal of troops from the populated areas of Gaza.
Subsequently, and within the framework of a first phase of liberation, the Palestinian armed group will hand over a total of 33 hostages, but those considered “humanitarians.” That is, only children, women, the elderly and the sick. The only soldiers who would surrender during that period would be the kidnapped IDF women. There is mistrust on this point, as there has been in the past, since Israel has not been able to verify that those hostages are still alive.
If everything goes well, negotiations would be opened for a second phase of hostage delivery. This would include releasing the remainder, a bulk of male soldiers and men of military age, in addition to the bodies of the murdered hostages. Of course, Israeli troops would not abandon Gaza completely and would remain in a sort of buffer area to be designated and with the sole objective of protecting Israeli border areas. Of course, Tel Aviv would not give up border control of the enclave and Egypt either, that is, the line called the Philadelphia Corridor.
What will Israel give to Hamas in exchange? What will happen to the body of the mastermind of the 7-O attacks?
In exchange for this delivery of hostages, Israel will unlock what had been saved in previous negotiations. The ace in the hole that was reserved are the “assets” that Hamas most desires, high-level terrorists and a high, but undetermined number of Palestinian prisoners.
However, it is not clear where Israel’s red line would be when it comes to releasing Palestinian prisoners. They could be imprisoned for blood crimes, but they would not be released in the West Bank – the other occupied Palestinian territory. Furthermore, in no case those who participated in the 7-O attacks.
The Saudi channel Al-Hadath has even published that Israel has provided Hamas with a list of hundreds of prisoners who could be released. However, figures of the stature of Marwan Barghouti, leader of the Intifada sentenced to several life sentences, would not enter, for example.
In this sense, Hamas has tried to get Israel to hand over the body of its leader murdered by the Israeli Army and the one considered to be the mastermind of the October 7 attacks, Yahya Sinwar. Tel Aviv has flatly refused. In the words of one official: “It won’t happen. Period.”
Does the agreement have detractors? Is there a conflict between the Biden Administration and the future Trump Administration? What is happening with the Israeli Government?
All in all, and although there are indicators that the agreement may materialize, this possibility has not been without criticism and has even included a demonstration against it. In tune with the strong ultranationalist sentiment that is growing in Israel in the heat of the movement that claims Gaza and the West Bank as part of Israel – once again contravening international law.
On the one hand, there is tension on the other side of the pond, where the future Trump Administration has also made moves to not be left out of this historic agreement that could occur even with the Republican once again sitting in the Oval Office. The truth is that Israel works with both, as Trump’s selected official, Steve Witkoff, joins Biden’s envoy, Brett McGurk.
Where everything could blow up, in fact a constant throughout these last few months, is in the Government of Israel. A conspiracy is already being prepared in the ultra wing if Netanyahu ends up giving the green light to this agreement – no, it would not have to be voted on by the Israeli Parliament. According to HareetzNational Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has urged his far-right partner, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to join forces to leave the government if the hostage deal is approved.
