A secret operation of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin), revealed by a server to the Federal Police, rekindled diplomatic tensions between Brazil and Paraguay. The reason: in full negotiation of the Itaipu hydroelectric dams.
The offensive, according to the portal UOLit was also started in the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and, according to the deponent, had the endorsement of the current management, already under the command of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT).
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The server states that the attacks – made with tools such as Cobalt Strike and social engineering techniques – targeted passwords, cookies and data from authorities directly involved in the dealings on Itaipu’s energy sale to Brazil. The attacks were fired from servers located in Panama and Chile.
The repercussion of the complaint caused an immediate reaction from the Paraguayan government, which and announced the suspension of negotiations on the so -called Annex C of the Itaipu Treaty – a document that defines the commercial terms of the hydroelectric power sales sales. The Paraguayan chancellor ranked the episode as a “violation of national sovereignty” and charged a formal response from Brazil.
Despite the political impact, experts heard minimize the potential for damage in bilateral relationships. For Renato Ribeiro de Almeida, Doctor of State Law from USP, in diplomatic terms, the case can be considered a “smaller case”.
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“It is common for countries to investigate their business partners to obtain information that assists in negotiations. I do not see this as espionage, but as a matter of perspective within the Paraguayan narrative. It is up to the Brazilian intelligence agency to obtain maximum information to support decision making,” said Almeida.
The expert also points out that the case exposes a “narrative war” between countries that seek a more favorable position on the negotiating table.
“Of course, Paraguay will try, based on this factoid, to create an embarrassing situation for Brazil in order to gain some advantage in negotiations. However, I believe the relationship between countries, after this moment, will not face more severe challenges or problems,” he says.
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According to him, it is natural that Abin acts in the protection of national interests, especially in negotiations involving strategic assets such as Itaipu.
“I understand that the Brazilian Intelligence Agency has not extrapolated its duties, given that Brazil should, of course, safeguard its interests in commercial negotiations. As Paraguay is a partner of Brazil at the Itaipu plant – which, therefore, is called binational – I see no improper interference. This would only occur if it was somewhat alien to the interests of Brazil or non -Brazilian issues.”
Since the end of the Paraguayan War, relations between the two countries have been marked by stability and cooperation. The growing presence of Brazilian investments in Paraguay and commercial integration through Mercosur supports a diplomatic environment that, in Almeida’s view, should prevail. “After the initial impact, I don’t believe the episode compromises long -term relationships.”
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If, on the one hand, Brazil faces criticism, on the other, it consolidates its strategic performance on the international board – even if it costs a diplomatic headache with one of its closest partners.
What the two governments say
In a joint statement, the Presidency of the Republic and the Ministry of Foreign Relations of Brazil confirmed the existence of the operation. According to the statement, ABIN’s action began in June 2022, still during the Jair Bolsonaro government, and ended in March 2023, after the Lula government learned of the case.
The note was released after Chancellor Mauro Vieira talks to Paraguay Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez Lescano. According to the Paraguayan government, Vieira acknowledged that the espionage was authorized in the previous management, but ensured that the current government ended the operation.
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On the Paraguayan side, the tone was of caution, but firmness. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that there is still no evidence that the systems have been effectively invaded, but that local investigation bodies are investigating the case. In response, the country officially suspended discussions about Annex C of Itaipu until everything is clarified.
On Tuesday (1st), the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Paraguay, Victor Verdún, summoned the Brazilian ambassador in Asuncion, José Antônio Marcondes, to provide clarification. “In the document [entregue a Marcondes]a detailed explanation of the Orded Intelligence action to the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin), between June 2022 and March 2023, said the Paraguayan Chancellery.
The Paraguayan government also stressed that the progress of negotiations with Brazil, especially with regard to the commercialization of energy from the Itaipu hydroelectric dam, depends on the complete resolution of this diplomatic impasse.
