Lula ties with Bolsonaro and wins another 7 in 2nd shift

The President (PT) would draw with the former Chief Executive (PL), who is ineligible, in an eventual 2nd round. A survey released on Thursday (3.br.2025) indicates that if the elections were today, 44% would vote for the petista and 40% in the former president. Considering the margin of error, of 2 pp (percentage points), there is a technical draw.

Lula would win in the other scenarios of the survey, in which the president would compete for the 2nd round against:

The research was commissioned by the great investment. 2,004 people from 16 or older were heard from March 27 to 31. The error margin is 2 pp for more or less. The confidence level is 95%. The information is from .

The survey asked what the interviewees are most afraid today: Lula continues in the presidency or Bolsonaro being president again. There was a technical draw.

Here’s the result:

• Bolsonaro Back: 44%;
• Lula Continue: 41%;
• are afraid of the 2: 6%;
• are not afraid of any of the 2: 4%;
• They do not know/did not answer: 5%.

Read the 2nd round scenarios tested:

Lula x Bolsonaro

• Lula: 44%;
• Bolsonaro: 40%;
• undecided: 3%;
• White/null/will not vote: 13%.

Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro

• Lula: 44%;
• Michelle Bolsonaro: 38%;
• undecided: 3%;
• White/null/will not vote: 15%.

Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas

• Lula: 43%;
• Tarcisio: 37%;
• undecided: 4%;
• White/null/will not vote: 16%.

Lula x Ratinho Junior

• Lula: 42%;
• Junior: 35%;
• undecided: 4%;
• White/null/will not vote: 19%.

Lula x Marçal

• Lula: 44%;
• Marçal: 35%;
• undecided: 4%;
• White/null/will not vote: 17%.

Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro

• Lula: 45%;
• Eduardo Bolsonaro: 34%;
• undecided: 4%;
• White/null/will not vote: 17%.

Lula x zema

• Lula: 43%;
• Low: 31%;
• undecided: 5%;
• White/null/will not vote: 21%.

Lula x Caiado

• Lula: 44%;
• Koado: 30%;
• undecided: 4%;
• White/null/will not vote: 22%.

RIGHT

The survey asked the interviewees who should be the right candidate if Jair Bolsonaro follows ineligible.

Here’s the result:

• Tarcisio: 15%;
• Michelle Bolsonaro: 14%;
• Marçal: 11%;
• Junior: 9%;
• Eduardo Bolsonaro: 4%;
• Low: 4%;
• Koado: 4%;
• (PSDB): 3%;
• Other: 1%;
• None of these: 19%;
• They do not know/did not answer: 16%.

REJECTION

The survey indicates that Lula and Bolsonaro have the same rejection rate: 55%. They are technically tied with Eduardo Bolsonaro, who appears with 56%.

The least rejected are Zema (24%) and Caiado (26%). However, both are the least known of the respondents.

Here’s the results:

Lula

• know and would vote: 41% (47% in January);
• know and would not vote: 55% (were 49%);
• do not know: 4% (were 4%)

Jair Bolsonaro

• know and would vote: 39% (were 41%);
• know and would not vote: 55% (53%);
• do not know: 6% (it was 6%).

Michelle Bolsonaro

• know and would vote: 30% (were 29%);
• know and would not vote: 48% (49%);
• do not know: 22% (were 22%).

Tarcísio de Freitas

• know and would vote: 26% (were 23%);
• know and would not vote: 32% (were 32%);
• do not know: 42% (45%).

Eduardo Bolsonaro

• know and would vote: 23% (were 22%);
• know and would not vote: 56% (55%);
• do not know: 21% (it was 23%).

Pablo Marçal

• know and would vote: 22% (were 26%);
• know and would not vote: 45% (42%);
• do not know: 33% (32%).

Junior

• know and would vote: 20% (were 17%);
• know and would not vote: 29% (were 32%);
• do not know: 51% (51%).

Romeu low

• know and would vote: 15% (were 15%);
• know and would not vote: 24% (were 23%);
• do not know: 61% (were 62%)

Ronaldo Caiado

• know and would vote: 11% (it was 11%);
• know and would not vote: 26% (were 21%);
• do not know: 63% (were 68%).

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