Global scholarships and the value of the dollar fell on Thursday (3) after reciprocal tariffs announced Wednesday by US President Donald Trump.
Republican assessment is that the initial shock of investors was already expected, but that the trend is the.
Investors heard by CNNHowever, they do not share the same certainty. Otherwise, the consensus between them is that the moment is as uncertain as possible.
“It is very difficult to dig up to the future of the economy, […] We still have a cloud, a giant question mark [sobre a extensão dos danos da política comercial dos EUA]”, Evaluates André Fernandes, chief economist of economic analysis.
Here in Brazil, – the lowest closure since October 16, 2024, when it closed at R $ 5,6226. The Ibovespa operated between highs and casualties on the day, ending the trading session in a soft drop of 0.04%, to 131,140.65 points.
In the rest of the world, however, the losses were much more expressive. Asia, Europe, and the US bags have experienced robust falls with the fear of tariff.
“It has a crisis of confidence, the market came to believe less in the United States. […] to ‘disincer’ the United States. […] And then there is a selloff Of the American actives in global markets, ”says Renoir Vieira, partner of Duna Consultoria.
“The interpretation of the market in relation to tariffs for the Brazilian case is positive. Brazil has come out much better than most relevant countries, and this directly directs resources to Brazil. It can see in the medium term international companies increasing production and investment in Brazil to serve the US market at more competitive prices,” points out Vieira.
On the negative side, and what must have weighed more to lead Ibovespa to the fall at the end of the trading session, investors point to the low in international trade and lower efficiency of value global chains.
Luciano Costa, chief economist of Monte Bravo, points out that if there is a climb of the trade war, the tendency is to increase risk aversion and, consequently, there is a worsening in assets prices.
“In the short term will continue to see the effects of this shock, where much of the correction is already happening. There has been a large change of scenario, the assets will seek balance, but the moment is of realization in the markets,” ponders Costa.
Paula Zogbi, Nomad’s Research Manager, points out that the drop in the dollar on Thursday was partly from the expectation that the US economy slows down due to tariffs. In addition, it draws attention to high interest rates here in Brazil, which attract capital of investors seeking profitable alternatives. But it stresses that the moment is of volatility.
In this line, Helena Veronese, chief economist at B.side investments, hits the difficulty key to the future of the market in this scenario.
“From now on it is very difficult to talk about a dollar perspective because everything is very uncertain. If we keep seeing this trend of possible recession, and if the indicators point to it, we can have a weaker dollar. But the environment is very uncertain, and the environment of aversion much […] It may have an escape to Porto Seguro that – even though the United States is there in the eye of the hurricane – it is the dollar, which is still a safe currency, ”concludes Veronese.
