The tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump about dozens of countries on Wednesday (2) were presented as “reciprocal”, corresponding to what other countries charge dollar per dollar from the US, even taking into account non-tariff barriers, such as value-added taxes and other similar measures.
But the real calculation used by the Trump administration is not at all reciprocal.
Comparing dollar dollar fares is an incredibly difficult task that involves analyzing the tariff table of each country and comparing a complex product range, each with a different rate for each variant.
Instead, the Trump administration used a very simple calculation: the country’s commercial deficit divided by its exports to the United States divided by half. And that.
The International Analyst of CNNLourival Santanna, had presented to WW of Wednesday the possibility. The Trump administration confirmed on Thursday (3) that this was the calculation it used.
For example, the US commercial deficit with China in 2024 was $ 295.4 billion, and the United States imported $ 439.9 billion in Chinese products.
This means that China’s commercial surplus with the United States was 67% of the value of its exports – a value that the Trump government labeled as a “US charged tariff.”
But it’s nothing like that.
“Although these new tariff measures have been framed as ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, politics is actually surplus goal,” said Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading’s chief marketing strategist, in a statement to investors on Wednesday.
“There seems to have been any rates used in the calculation of the rate. Trump administration is specifically aiming nations with large commercial surpluses with the United States compared to its exports to the United States,” he added.
The simple calculation used by the Trump administration may have broad implications for the countries on which the United States depend to obtain products – and to the global companies that provide them.
“Knowing how these rates have been calculated points out that they will usually be more severe in nations on which US companies depend strongly in their supply chain,” said O’Rourke. “It’s hard to imagine how these tariffs would not cause damage to the profit margins of the main multinational corporations.”
