For the same reason: involvement in scandals of. The potential impact is considerable, how. His ministry companion, Juscelino Filho, has also been dispatched due to scandals, reliving similar episodes in the Dilma government when seven ministers fell for the same reasons. Why do some ministers remain in office throughout their term while others have been replaced?
Ministries are an essential part of the functioning of coalition presidentialism. They serve as instruments for the assembly of coalitions along with budget amendments and federal positions in state and high management ,. In addition to scandals, there are other factors that matter to the survival of the ministers. I explain with evidence.
Part of the answer we can see in research I coordinated at UFPE we show that between 1995 and 2014 (from FHC1 to Dilma 1), there were 278 holders of ministries, of which just over half (52%) 145 were replaced. In the period there were 54 scandals of corruption involving 19 ministers and which led to the resignation of 14 of them. There is a concentration of layoffs in a set of ministerial folders: from Social Security (9), justice (9), agriculture (8), work (7) and the Secretary of Institutional Relations, with respectively (7). And there is a temporal standard: they tend to occur in the first year of government.
A statistical model of survival analysis shows that the lower the presidential popularity the greater the volatility of ministers in office. As is now the case with the ministers’ median of survival in office is 546 days, or half of the ministers are replaced after just under two years in office. According to Camila Bivar’s TCC, volatility focuses on coalition partner folders, and is 4% lower in those where the ministers are from the president’s party. This is accentuated in governments in which the party occupies disproportionate number of folders. Volatility is also greater when ministers come from parties that are ideologically distant from the president.
Folder holders who are not affiliated with political parties have a considerably lower risk (25%) of being replaced than parties affiliates, ie volatility is political in nature, related to coalition management.
The proportionality between folders allocated to a party and occupied chairs in the House is an important predictor of the Ministers’ turnover in office, the higher the proportionality the higher the risk of substitution of ministers. What’s more, individual turnover increases but positions remain with the party to which the folder was allocated.
Involvement in corruption in the fall of ministers is not a relevant variable for the entire period. The probability is 16 times smaller under squid 1 and 8 times smaller under Lula 2 than in Dilma 1. Which reveals your strategy of reducing your PMDB dependence. What’s more, the layoffs occurred before the government completed a thousand days.
We do not have data for Dilma 2 onwards, when a period marked by shocks in the. But the similarity between Lula 3 and Dilma 1 suggests instability.
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