“One more percentage point in defense spending would cost Germany about 45,000 million additional euros.” The figure, published by the newspaper From estimates of the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, leaves no doubt: the new German government goes with everything. Its objective, announced to hype and saucer in the first statement of the Foreign Minister, is to turn the Bundeswehr (the German armed forces) into “the strongest army in Europe.” To achieve this, Berlin plans to shoot its military budget up to 5% of GDP, more than double the current level and well above the minimum required by NATO. The invoice would be around 225,000 million euros annually. Calderilla, if it is about sending the message that Germany has not only returned, but leads.
True to his style, the conservative executive does not give stitch without thread. The Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, detailed the maneuver on Thursday: not all the money would go to tanks and fighters. Berlin proposes that 3.5% of GDP is allocated to conventional defense and that the remaining 1.5% cover infrastructure with military use: roads, ports or digital networks. This mixed formula has already been blessed by the new NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, and allows Germany to place themselves in the pole without unleashing an internal fiscal storm.
The play also works as pressure. Poland and the Baltic Republics already exceed the threshold of 2% of GDP in defense, but other countries such as Spain, Italy or Belgium are still well below. For them, the option of computing strategic infrastructure as part of military spending opens an escape route. It is not the same to announce cuts to buy missiles to invest in ports or two -use trains. The key will be in how it is measured and who controls it. Because if something is clear is that Trump does not want excuses.
NATO goes up the bet
This step forward does not come out of nowhere. The war in Ukraine, the growing instability in the eastern flank and the shadow of a more demanding Trump have pushed Germany to do what for decades avoided: taking their military power seriously. The old taboo to spend in defense has been left behind. Now, the European rearme carries German seal. And the new chancellor wants to make it clear that he does not plan to ask permission.
The decision has generated an expansive wave in Brussels. Many NATO countries have been breaking the 2 %target years. But with Germany pushing around 5 %, the pressure multiplies. The mixed model proposed by Berlin could become the consensus formula, especially for Member States that cannot, or do not want to duplicate their classical military investment.
Donald Trump has returned to the international board with his usual demands, although this time higher. In the face of the NATO summit in June, in The Hague, the former president of the United States asks that all allies dedicate 5 % of the GDP to military spending. A jump that would put a good part of the alliance against the ropes. And he does it with his characteristic style: if there are no clear advances, he could be absent from the encounter. A threat that worries, and much, in Brussels, where everyone knows that the US nuclear umbrella remains the pillar of deterrence.
Before that ultimatum, NATO has already set a horizon: the year 2032. This was slid by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in a meeting in Brussels. No one expects the transformation to be immediate, not even in Washington. But the address is already marked. Who does not climb to the car, is left behind. And Germany, for the first time in decades, has decided to step on the accelerator.
