Poland will celebrate its traditional duel between liberals and conservatives in the second round of the presidential elections, scheduled for June 1. None of the 13 candidates to become head of state has managed to add more than 50% of votes necessary to resolve the elections. URNA polls show a very adjusted result between the top two. According to these surveys, the almost 29 million voters will have to choose between Mayor Warsaw, the liberal European Rafal Trzawski, and the ultraconservative nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki. The first would be an ally for Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The second, a new obstacle, as President Andrzej has until now.
The winner in the polls of this first round, by the minimum, is a prominent leader of the Civic Platform (PO), the Liberal Centrodcha de Prime Minister, Donald Tusk party. Trzawski would have added a 30.8% support, always according to the urn foot survey of the Democopic Ipsos company for the three main television networks, made from the polls at the foot of the urn and first scrutiny and with a 1% margin of error.
“I am for the victory, so that Poland is more prosperous, so that the government can fulfill all its promises,” the mayor promised after knowing the polls. Trzawski promised to facilitate the executive to complete the changes that began with the parliamentary elections of 2023 and mentioned pending issues such as the legalization of abortion. He also assured that he wants to contribute to society: “It is worth divisions, it is time to have quiet conversations,” he said, after ensuring that he will demand responsibilities for ultraconservatives for his actions at the head of the previous government. His adversary, he warned, is “an extremist politician who seeks the conflict.”
Nawrocki, former president of the National Memory Institute and non -affiliated candidate supported by Law and Justice (PIS), by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, would have achieved 29.1% of votes, very close to the mayor. “We will win these elections. We are prepared for this, determined,” said the historian. “They already have the Sejm [la Cámara baja del Parlamento]the Senate, the Prime Minister. They want to have a president to enter the euro in Poland, accelerate the migratory pact, direct the hatred towards the opposition, ”he added, offering as counterweight to liberal power.
Legislative, local, regional, European and this Sunday, presidential. In just over a year and a half, the Poles have been summoned to the polls in five elections. The participation, according to Ipsos, has been 66.8%, two points more than in 2020. We will have to wait for Tuesday or Monday night to have official results, as Sylwester Marciniak, president of the National Electoral Commission, has advanced.
Poland enrolls in the political dichotomy that, with national nuances, travels Europe: on the one hand, a liberal field, which embodies Western values and Europeanism. With the election of the Head of State, citizens decide on a figure that can facilitate the liberal reformist agenda of the coalition government led by Tusk ,. A Nawrocki mandate would be a continuation of the problem cohabitation that liberals have lived with doubt. “These two weeks will decide the future of our country. Therefore, not a step back,” the prime minister wrote after knowing the polls. Tusk predicted a “fight for each vote”, after knowing the polls.
The successive elections held by the country have shown that, despite the liberal victory of 2023 – recognized in Brussels as a dike in front of populism -, the ultraconservative and extreme right forces have not disappeared in the country. On the contrary. All recent elections and show a persistent division in society. “The best way to see this is not like a definitive victory or defeat, but as a continuous struggle,” said Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of politics at the University of Sussex, in a video call on Thursday.
Although the surveys give Trzawski advantage, which is presented for the second time, the second round can be very close. In 2020, when he competed with doubt, Pis’s candidate won for just over 400,000 votes. In the two weeks of the final campaign that the applicants start now they will try to win the voters from the rest of the forces.
The aspiring of the extreme right -right Konfederacja party, Slawomir Mentzen, is in third position, with 14.8% support, according to Ipsos. Mentzen, as in parliamentarians, began with an intention to vote of almost 20% that has been deflating over the weeks. Nawrocki has already begun to ask for his support for the second round.
With such a wide fan of candidacies, the campaign has been very fragmented and the favorites barely add 60% of the votes. Each member of the coalition government – form of conservative, center and progressive forces – has presented its own applicant, who have not reached 5% support. The controversial Ultra Grzegorz Braun, expelled from Konfederacja for its anti -Semitic outbursts, would have surpassed the executive members and would have placed in fourth position, with 6.3%.
Key competitions
The president in Poland has some key powers, such as the right of veto of legislation – which can only be reversed with a parliamentary majority of three fifths. It is also the appointment of figures such as judges or ambassadors and plays an active role in foreign policy. To pee, keeping the Head of State is essential to reserve.
The liberal executive also needs to win these elections to stop the loss of popularity that he is suffering. “There is a general feeling that the government is simply not fulfilling,” said Szczerbiak. “They had a program of ‘100 proposals in 100 days’ … and they have turned 20,” he continued. For civic platform having an Afine president is crucial to complete the projects he promised without the threat of permanent blocking ,.
In some cases, however, such as the legalization of abortion and same -sex unions, the bills have not even reached the president’s table, because the most conservative partners of the government have stopped them. This has generated that they had put great hopes in the political turn of the country after eight years of ultraconservative government.
