The marginal victory (50.9% – 49.1%) of the nationalist historian, former boxer and a fan of the MAGA movement, supported by the far -right, nationalist law and justice (PIS) in the second round of presidential elections in the European Country (1/6). Reform. Something that the Prime Minister’s government has been trying since 2023, after eight years of PIS rule, during which the rule of law and the independence of justice has hit.
The defeat of Rafau Chasskovsky, Mayor of Warsaw and a candidate for the liberal and pro -European center political platform of the Polish Prime Minister, brings the country to the possible political paralysis and governance.
“The presidential veto can freeze legislative proposals drawn up by the government,” Piotr Koulas, a professor at the University of Warsaw, emphasizes in Vima, who expresses concern that “the prime minister can decide to dismantle the government and the announcement. Even liberal politicians argue that the result is a red card for his government. Incorrectly, the presidential elections have evolved into a referendum on its evaluation. The president and prime minister must cooperate for the security of the country. In particular, the president has a symbolic power, which could be used to unite a divided nation. The key question remains what Navrotsky will choose to do, especially after his deep polarizing campaign. “
According to the Polish Constitution, the main burden of political responsibility is borne by the government. “However, the president also plays an important role, mainly as a spokesman for the country on the international stage,” Koulas explains. In some areas, the responsibilities of the President and the Prime Minister “may overlap, which can lead to conflicts, deadlock or even political paralysis”.
Most importantly, the Polish president can “exercise the right to negativity”, refusing to sign a bill and re -establish it in the Lower House. Today’s Tusk government coalition does not have a sufficient majority of three fifths to bypass a possible presidential veto. It should be noted that from Tusk’s return to power in December 2023, outgoing President Andrei Dunda, who comes from PIS, has repeatedly used the right to block laws and reforms regarding the independence of justice, public control.
Tusk and his ministers have been forced to resort to legal “bypasses”, as in the issuance of circulars and ministerial decisions to promote their agenda. This option has been criticized because it is not fully consistent with the rule of law.
“Like former President Dunda, Navrotsky could further prevent efforts to overthrow the judicial reforms introduced by PIS. There are other fields in which it is opposed: in the liberation of abortions and in the legalization of cohabitation consonants, especially cohabitation between people of the same sex, “Koulas explains.
A serious issue may arise, according to our interlocutor, due to the fact that the president of Poland is the head of the Armed Forces and represents the country at the NATO summit (Poland has the largest land army in the EU and spends almost 5% of the GDP).
In foreign policy, Piotr Koulas sees “the shock of Poland’s position among its liberal European partners, especially if the new president maintains the extremely critical attitude against them, rather than a realist.” But also the international perception, especially within the EU, for the newly elected president, who has so far maintained a steady critical attitude towards Brussels, “can significantly influence Poland’s relations with other European countries.”
As for Ukraine, Navrotsky’s attitude remains uncertain, which has stated that “it does not support the country’s NATO or the EU accession. As long as Russia’s aggression continues”. “Polish society has greatly helped the Ukrainians. After three years he is tired, something the new president has exploited, “Koulas explains.
The Weimar Triangle – Germany, France and Poland – has replaced the Franco -German axis in EU’s “guidance”. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kir Starmer involved Poland in the coalition of the Eucharist for the Coalition of the Eucharist. troops in the field. At the same time, Poland, chairing the European Council this semester, promoted the Safe for European Defense, as well as new sanctions against Russia. No one knows what attitude will be related to Chasskovki.
Two Polish
It is worth noting that Sunday’s elections had the highest participation (almost 72%) since the 1989 election, the first after the fall of communism in the country. “The two camps have brought together voters, presenting the elections as a referendum, eventually mobilizing the rage of both camps,” Koula says. Hence the polarization “hit red”: “The minimum difference (1.8%) between the two candidates in the second round proves that the Polish nation is extremely divided between two opposing political and social visions, regarding Poland’s position in Europe, its approach to modernity. And, therefore, we cannot talk about a nation but about two, “continues the Polish academic, urging us to look at the Poland’s electoral map.
“You can see that those living in the eastern part of the country voted Navrotsky and those living in urban centers and western part, who have a higher level of educational level, Chasskovsky.” Accordingly, the division of the vote among men, “which are more conservative and feel marginalized”, despite flourishing the economy (at a rate of 3% per year) and the rise of living standards in the country, and women who are “more liberal and educated”, is clearly divided. presidential elections in the US.
“The two sexes follow separate paths in Poland. Beyond that, polarization, anti-systemic, anti-elite current is not a Polish, but a worldwide phenomenon, “summarizes Piotr Koula. The liquidity caused by the critical ballot box of June 1 on the Polish political scene makes the EU for now holding its breath. Donald Trump, however, did not delay, however, to congratulate the winner of the winner with enthusiasm.
