Igor Gielow
SAO PAULO, SP (Folhapress) – The White House reported on Thursday (19) that President Donald Trump will decide whether to participate in up to two weeks. With this, the American gains time for a possible resumption of negotiations that, behind the scenes, seems to be underway.
“Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not occur in the near future, I will make my decision about whether or not to go in the next two weeks,” said Trump, in the words of the Secretary of Press, Karoline Leavitt.
According to Reuters, there have been direct phone contacts between Iranian chancellor ABBAS ARAGHCHI and American negotiator Steve Witkoff. The report hits others, and Trump’s deadline can signal both accommodation and be a smoke curtain for an operation already decided.
There will also be a meeting of Iranian emissaries with Europeans in Geneva, Switzerland, which could serve as a conduct of information for Washington.
On Wednesday (18), Trump kept the declaratory shuttle. If the day before had threatened to kill Iran’s supreme leader, there Khamenei, he has said that “he can or cannot” attack, and that he usually decides “in the last second.”
At the end of the day, he ventilated the Iranian interest in talking, although Khamenei rejected his ultimatum for an “unconditional surrender” and threatened retaliation. Now, such two weeks.
This Thursday, the Iranian leader provoked Tel Aviv for the American intervention. “The very fact that American friends of the Zionist regime [Israel] Have entered the scene is a sign of the weakness and inability of this regime, ”he said in X.
The US is sending more strength to the region and will soon have three groups of aircraft carrier, two in the Gulf area and one in the Mediterranean. There are no good options for Trump: he is already under attack of his radical base, pointing out the betrayal of the promise of not getting into wars from others, and an action brings many risks.
The main thing is the issue of the change of regime in Iran, the proverbial day. Iranian opposition is fragmentary and disorganized. Thus, there is no plan B for this scenario today, and attempts to impose new governments in the region have always resulted in chaos -vide to Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan.
Even Israeli award Binyamin Netanyahu retreated rhetorically from his desire for change of regime, emulated by radicals of his office as Minister Israel Katz (defense), saying on Thursday that this is not a “goal, but it can be a consequence.”
In the middle of time, Israel should maintain the routine of heavy attacks to degrade the nuclear program and the defenses of theocracy, while Tehran continues to firing ballistic missiles against the Jewish state.
So if you really go to the roads, it is possible that Trump only focuses on the nuclear program, as there is consensus that the use of a US superbomba is necessary to try to finish the most resistant underground structures in Iran -the American media said the president even approved, without giving ok, plan for it.
While the ballet unfolded, three Iran presidency planes left the country, according to air traffic monitoring sites towards Oman, across the Persian Gulf. The sultanate had been working as a mediator of conversations about the Iranian nuclear program between Tehran and Washington.
They aimed to resume the arrangement in which theocracy opened the bomb in exchange for the end of sanctions, as it watched between 2015 and 2018, when Trump removed the US from the agreement.
Now, the American wanted the total end of the country’s uranium enrichment activities, which claims to need them for peaceful purposes -a half truth, as it is possible to have atomic energy by buying fuel from the ally Russia, for example.
In any case, Khameni hit his foot, and the AIA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, gave a final push with a report by putting Iran in total violation of its transparency commitments. Israel used both points, arguing based on intelligence data that Tehran could have 15 bombs in a matter of days or weeks, and attacked.
This Thursday, Iran’s diplomatic spokesman, Esraeli Baghaei, said the AIA was a partner of “an unfair war of aggression.” He cited an interview by Rafael Grossi, director of the agency, to CNN, in which the Argentine said he had no evidence of the attempt to build the Iranian bomb: “Too late, Mr. Grossi.”
