The confidence of Brazilians in relation to the national team is low. Just under a year from the beginning of the next World Cup, which will take place in the United States, Canada and Mexico, Datafolha survey shows that 33% of the population bets that the team led by Italian Carlo Ancelotti, newcomers, will reach the trophy in North America.
The brand represents the lowest percentage of the historical series, which began three decades ago, with similar questions about the theme made by the Institute. Before the last World Cup, played at Qatar in 2022, 54% bet their chips in the cast then led by Tite.
In the most recent survey, Datafolha listened to 2,004 people 16 years or older, distributed in 136 municipalities across Brazil. The survey was conducted on June 10 and 11, 2025. The margin of error is two percentage points for more or less.
Earned by Datafolha since 1994, Brazilians’ opinion of the World Cup winner had in 2018 the worst trademark so far for the green and yellow team. On the eve of the edition held in Russia, 48% believed that the title would be with the world’s five -time team.
The number still reflected the frustration lived by Brazilians in the 2014 World Cup, when Brazil played at home and ended its campaign disastrously: in the semifinal, the team led by Luiz Felipe Scolari was massacred by Germany and lost 7-1. Then, in the third place, new defeat, 3-0 to the Netherlands.
Before 2018, the index had never been below 56%, recorded in 1994, on the eve of the edition in which Brazil won the four -time championship in the United States. The biggest optimism was recorded in 2006, before the World Cup played in Germany: the Brazilian team arrived with 83% confidence, optimism driven by the conquest of Penta in 2002, and with good results in the sequence.
After reaching its peak, the expectation of Brazilians in relation to the selection began to fall, even with some oscillations. The index was 64% in 2010, 68% in 2014, 48% in 2018 and 54% in 2022 until now reaching 33%.
The Canarinho team, which was almost a national unanimity, began to generate doubts in half the country and disinterest elsewhere. The number of Brazilians who could not give their opinion on who will win the 2026 World Cup was also 33%.
The percentage of undecided is higher among women, 43% against 23% of men, with a margin of error of three points to more or less in this clipping.
Division by age group shows that young people aged 16 to 24 have greater confidence in the selection (39%) than those 60 or older (28%). The margin of error in this clipping is five percentage points for more or less.
Some people of the first group were not even born or only one year old the last time Brazil was world champion in 2002. After that, the country had its longest campaign in the World Cup which earned it the frustrating fourth place of 2014 and embittered four eliminations in the Wednesday: 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022. Even so, their feeling is more optimistic.
The elders, who keep in memory not only recent failures, but also the times of glory of the past, are more pessimistic.
The crossing between political preferences and expectation in the World Cup reveals an important difference. The confidence that Brazil will be champion among those who intend to vote in the next presidential election in Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) is 42% – the margin of error is four points.
Among those who declare voting intention in former President Jair Bolsonaro, 29% cite Brazil favorite-also with a margin of four points.
In the group of those who intend to have blank or null vote, 26% bet in Brazil champion in 2026, and 47% could not answer. The margin of error is six points in this clipping.
Regardless of the political field, besides Brazil, the team most cited in the survey was Argentina, champion of the last World Cup, in 2022, with 9% of the guesses. Spain appears third, with 8%. Vice in the last World Cup, France was the fourth most cited, with 6%.
Of the three most cited teams besides Brazil, only Argentina confirmed its place in the 2026 World Cup, with the best campaign in South America. The alviceleste team leads the continent’s qualifiers, with 35 points in 16 games.
Brazil also qualified at the beginning of last month, in Ancelotti’s second match at the head of the team, with a 1-0 win over Paraguay.
The classification has softened the criticism that echoes since the fall in the quarterfinals of the World Cup in Qatar and gained more strength throughout the new cycle, in which Brazil began to live with exchange of technicians in the midst of an institutional crisis at CBF (Brazilian Football Confederation).
