Trump will send more “top weapons” to help Ukraine. What does this mean to war

At first glance, Donald Trump’s announcement about his plans for Russia and Ukraine seems a major political change.

In a statement from the Oval Hall, on July 14, where he had met with the secretary general of Nato Mark Ruttethe American president Donald Trump said he would send “first -rate weapons”To help Kiev.

Moreover, unless a ceasefire agreement is agreed within a 50 -daythe US will impose secondary sanctions to any countries that negotiate with Russia.

But although this new position represents a significant in relation to Trump’s previous approach, It’s another step back for the political approach of its predecessor, Joe Biden, than the turnaround that some commentators are claiming, says David Hastings DunnProfessor of International Policy at the University of Birmingham, in an article no.

For months, Russia intensified its bombing from Ukraine, encouraged by the fact that Neither the American Congress nor the White House have authorized any new military aid to Kiev.

Moscow would be aware of this lack of American action, and its missile and drone attacks against Ukraine aimed to exhaust the missile reserves air defense provided by Biden – while made body figure Present in peace negotiations, says Dunn.

Trump seems to have finally realized was happening – And your frustration and Disappointment with Putin Finally, it seems to have led him to unmask Putin’s game.

According to Trump, “Putin deceived a lot of people – Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden – “But it didn’t deceive me to me. At one point talking does not speak, it has to be action“Thus said the US President.

The decision to send new defensive missile supplies – and potentially to long -range offensive missiles – For Ukraine (even if Europeans pay for them) It is an important sign for Russia.

But It is also the threat of 100% tariffs about countries like India and China, which sustain the Russian economy buying your oil and gas at reduced prices.

The American Senate, led by Lindsay Grahamthe influential republican senator of South Carolina, has been eager for months to approve these sanctions secondary. Now that the Trump administration seems to have adopted this plan, it is a significant political instrument for Increase pressure on Russia.

The change in Trump’s approach may also mean that the 7.2 billion euros of frozen Russians in the US (and 201 billion euros in Europe) could be released to help Ukrainewhich would provide a ready way to pay for US arms transfers.

Limits to American Support

What It has not changed, however, is the goal of policy of Trump regarding the war in Ukraine. While the Biden administration denounced the illegality of Putin’s unlawful aggression and called for the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty, Trump is merely asking for a ceasefire.

The US President may say that he is “disappointed” with Vladimir Putin, But it did not label him as the aggressor. In fact, at one point even came to blame Ukraine for the invasion. And significantly, it did not require Russia to give up 20% of Ukraine that currently occupies illegally.

Trump Also maintains silence about what the US would commit to Security and stability for Ukraine After the fighting stops.

This is a much larger question than the adhesion of Ukraine to NATO. The European allies of America in NATO consider some kind of stability force in the Ukrainian territory as necessary to dissuade any future Russian aggression.

Whether or not American troops are involved (and all signs indicate that would not be), some kind of “support” or warranty of American security is still seen in Europe as fundamental to its success – As would be the logistical and intelligence support for its operation.

Why 50 days?

Another aspect of Trump’s change in politics It is the long term that was given to Russia to come to the table. Many Ukrainian civilians will probably die During this period if intense bombardment continues.

On the battlefield, 50 days would give the Russians a prolonged window During a renewed summer offensive to make more territorial gains within the occupied provinces.

So Trump’s proposals have to be seen through the prism of their propensity to establish deadlines that are then postponed multiple times – as with tariffs, which They gave Wal Street A Trump the nickname Taco – “Trump Always Chickens Out,” something like “Trump always gets up”.

The Russian Senator Konstantin Kosachev I certainly had this perspective in mind when I told Trump’s announcement that, “if this is all that Trump had to say about Ukraine, then so far has been a lot of noise for nothing“.

This feeling was shared by the Russian stock marketwhich rose 2.7% following Trump’s announcement.

Analysts expected much worseso the long term given until something really happens has been seen as a door open to position changes – or its cancellation. Trump is seen by many as inconsistent in their threats and unpredictable in their policies.

The fact that Trump said that Although I was “disappointed” with Putinhe had not “ended with him” – and his clear reluctance to act quickly and decisively to sanction Russia – should be seen as an important caveat of the apparent US political change.

Like so many things with the 47th American Presidentit is important not to react to the apparitions in the media or the headlines that cause, without also paying attention to the political actions of your administrationconclui David Hastings Dunn.