Political polarization in Brazil advanced, according to the latest Datafolha survey, with 76% of the population identifying themselves as a pocket or petista.
The most aligned group to the president) totaled 39% and the supporters of (), 37%, technically tied, according to a survey conducted on July 29 and 30, with 2,004 in -person interviews in 130 municipalities in Brazil and margin of two percentage points for more or less.
Among the interviewees, 18% declared themselves neutral, 5% said they did not support any of them and 1% could not answer.
The survey was done before the decree, last Monday (4), by the Minister of the Supreme Court (STF), but after restrictions imposed on the former president, as an electronic anklet, and amid discussion of the tariff and sanctions of the government to the magistrate.
In June, both groups were also tied at 35%, and the number of neutrals was numerically higher (20%), as well as the contingent of people who said they did not support any of the politicians (7%) and those who could not answer (2%).
In practice, the sum of petistas and pockets was 70%at the same level of April this year.
The June survey had been the first time since the beginning of the historical series of, in December 2022, in which the portion of Brazilians who declare themselves Bolsonarists had equated with those who identify themselves as petistas.
Over the past two and a half years – score after those who led Lula to his third term – Datafolha asked nine occasions to the interviewees: “Considering a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is a pocketist and 5 petista, in which number do you fit?”.
People who answered “one” or “two” were classified as pockets, and those who said “four” or “five” were categorized as petistas. Who answered “three” was regarded as neutral.
The advantage of the PT supporters compared to Bolsonaro’s reached its apex (ten points) on two occasions: in March 2023 and March 2024. In other surveys, the difference ranged from six to eight points until it was tied in June.
The president’s popularity remains at a low level compared to other Petista’s mandates. It continues with 40% disapproval against 29% approval in a stability scenario. In his third term, Lula accumulates wear with Congress and had the image shaken by the INSS scandal.
The intensification of polarization is also inserted in the context of Bolsonaro’s judgment, defendant in the STF by the coup plot and accused of five crimes: armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law, coup, damage qualified by violence and serious threat against the heritage of the union and deterioration of the overturned heritage.
On another front, he was arrested decreed this week for breaching precautionary measures imposed on him by Moraes, including the ban on social networks, including through third parties.
Bolsonaro is suspected of helping his son, licensed federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), to conspire against national sovereignty, with the objective of influencing the government of applying sanctions against Brazil, in retaliation for an alleged persecution of the former Mandanker.
US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff for Brazilian products and revoked the visas of eight Supreme Ministers. Moraes was punished with the Magnitsky Law, created for people who committed crimes against human rights. In parallel, the Bolsonarist base has intensified attacks on the Supreme Court, asking for an unrestricted amnesty to all involved in the coup plot.
