Real revenues, which discounts inflation, is pressured by high interest rates and greater consumer caution; In nominal revenues, there was a high of 3.5%
The actual revenue of Brazilian retail recorded a drop in 1,4% In August 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year. The data are from ICVA (Extended Retail Cielo Index), released on Monday (8.SET.2025). It is the 3rd consecutive month that the indicator points to retraction, signaling a scenario of greater consumer caution.
The result, which already discounts inflation, contrasts with nominal revenues (which shopkeepers actually see in cash), which grew 3.5% in the period. The difference highlights the impact of accumulated inflation, which has reached 4.95% in the last 12 months, eroding the purchasing power of the population.
The trend of falling actual sales volume, even with an increase in the value traded, is aligned with other economy indicators, such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product) deceleration in the 2nd quarter. The scenario reflects the effects of the Central Bank’s high interest rates, which seeks to contain consumption to control pressure on prices.
All 3 macrossectors analyzed by the index registered a real drop in August:
- durable and semidurable goods: led the losses, with a retreat of 4.1%. The result was influenced by the negative performance of sectors such as furniture, appliances, department stores and construction material;
- Services: They had a 1.8%retraction. Although segments such as tourism and transportation showed resilience, the result of the sector was pulled down by the retreat in bars and restaurants;
- non -durable goods: They fell 0.4%, mainly impacted by the performance of supermarkets and hypermarkets.
DEFLATION
The result of the supermarket and hypermarket sector is a thermometer of consumer behavior and the effect of monetary policy. The slight drop in the sector is associated with a deflation trend in the price of food consumed at home.
The IPCA -15, preview of official inflation, recorded deflation of -0.14% in August, the first drop in more than 2 years, mainly pulled by the costs of electricity and food. The IPCA, which will be released on Wednesday (10.SET.2025) by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), should also register deflation.
Regions and e-commerce
The fall in the real revenues of retail was recorded in the 5 regions of the country in August, compared to the same month of 2024. The largest retraction was in the north.
Here’s the results, the inflation is already discounted:
- Norte: -4,0%;
- Midwest: -2,7%;
- On the: -2,3%;
- North East: -1,1%;
- Southeast: -1,0%.
In nominal terms, e -commerce continues with a rhythm of growth slightly higher than that of physical stores. E-commerce grew 3.9%, while face-to-face sales rose 3.4%.
For Carlos Alves, Vice President of Technology and Business at Cielo, the numbers reinforce the perception of a more cautious consumer. “August reinforces the trend of nominal growth with real fall in Brazilian retail, highlighting the impact of inflation on consumption”he declared.
