There is still the possibility that Bolsonaro is out of prison, or at least to reduce the time he will spend inside
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to be in prison until he was 97. However, legal experts claim that Bolsonaro is unlikely to be 27 years behind bars. The Federal Supreme Court of Brazil considered him guilty of conspiring a coup to reverse the outcome of the elections he lost in 2022.
The convicts in Brazil often only meet a sixth sentence in closed regime and then eventually pass to a semi -open regime. In addition, the allies of the far right politician have already outlined plans to release him quickly, according to Reuters.
For now, Bolsonaro’s lawyers can try to keep him at home instead of transferring him to prison, as he is already under house arrest for allegedly trying to influence the judicial system with the support of President Donald Trump.
Political pathways that can lead to freedom include the following forms: a legislative amnesty, a presidential forgiveness after the 2026 elections, or maneuvers to restructure the Supreme Court through new nominations and proceedings of dismissal of judges currently in office.
The supporters of the former Brazilian president are promoting an amnesty bill in Congress that is based on a previous campaign to free hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters who, in 2023, invaded and vandalized government buildings in Brasilia.
“A shortcut to do justice … and bringing peace to Brazil would be through amnesty,” Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former president, told Reuters on the day his father was convicted. “The amnesty would clean everything.”
However, the constitutionality of this measure continues to be the subject of controversy and discussed in a country where public opinion is divided as to the condemnation of Bolsonaro. During the debates in the Supreme Court, two judges argued that any attempt to forgive those responsible for a coup of state would be unconstitutional.
According to the constitutionalist jurist Vera Chemim, from São Paulo, a possible legislative amnesty or presidential pardon “could be declared unconstitutional… based on the argument that crimes against the democratic rule of law are not subject to forgiveness or amnesty”.
Promises of forgiveness and restructuring of the Supreme Court
However, one of the main allies of Bolsonaro and potential presidential candidate in 2026 – the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas – has often made the promise of granting forgiveness to the former president if he could reach office.
After the conviction, the governor left Bolsonaro, protesting that both the former president and other convicts were victims of unjust and disproportionate penalties.
“The story will be in charge of dismantling these narratives, and justice will still prevail,” Freitas wrote on social networks.
In case the Federal Supreme Court will resist any attempted amnesty or presidential forgiveness, its own composition may significantly change until the end of the decade.
Brazil’s next president will have the opportunity to appoint three new judges to the Federal Supreme Court, which may profoundly alter the court’s ideological composition and ideological orientation, currently dominated by a progressive majority.
At the same time, a qualified majority in the Senate may allow the right -wing coalition, led by Jair Bolsonaro, to advance with acting judges’ dismissal proceedings, an intention already manifested by several senators.
These institutional changes can pave the way for a review of the current Supreme decision, something that is already precedent. In 2021, for example, a procedural reevaluation led to the annulment of corruption conviction that kept President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva arrested for more than 500 days, which allowed him to apply and beat Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections.
“In Brazil, the past is uncertain, and the future even more,” said Thiago de Aragão, director of the consultant Arko International, based in Washington.
Trump’s role
Donald Trump can also influence the sense of making the way for Bolsonaro’s release. In July, it imposed economic sanctions on Brazil and applied personal sanctions to the Supreme Judge who leads the case of the coup.
Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office warned that Trump’s possibility to intensify this pressure during the Brazilian elections of 2026, with the aim of favoring the formation of a government more aligned with his interests in Brasilia.
“We are better prepared now, thanks to the experience of defending democracy in 2022,” he said. “But this time, there is a well -coordinated effort to undermine Brazil’s position as an independent actor on the international scenario.”
