Survey of Futura Intelligence, a research company at Apex Partners, released on Tuesday (16), shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) at the front of the 2026 presidential race in the first round simulations. In the second round scenarios, however, the petista appears at a disadvantage before opponents on the right.
In the first scenario tested, with eight names, Lula adds 36.1% of voting intentions. Following are the licensed federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), with 18.1%, and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), with 17.4%. Whites, nulls or no candidate reach 9.9%, followed by Ratinho Júnior (PSD), with 6.3%, the undecided (4.8%), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), with 4.4%, and Romeu Zema (Novo), with 2.9%.
In the second scenario, Lula appears with 34.9%, while Tarcisio leads among opponents, with 22.7%, followed by Eduardo Bolsonaro (20.9%). Then come the blank/null votes (10.6%), Ronaldo Caiado (6.7%) and the undecided (4.1%).
In the third scenario, Lula maintains the lead with 35.6%, but sees Eduardo Bolsonaro touch, with 27.7%. Junior Ratinho marks 12.8%, whites/nulls reach 10.7%, Caiado appears with 10.1%and undecided with 3%.
In another clipping, which includes former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) -now ineligible and convicted by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) -the retired captain appears in front, with 41%, against 37.7% of Lula. White/null add up to 8.6%, Caiado has 6.6%, zema 4.4%and undecided 1.6%.
In the simulation with Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), there is a technical draw: Lula records 37.6%, and the former first lady 36.1%. White/null represents 9.6%, Caiado marks 7.8%, zema 6.7%and undecided 2.3%.
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The eighth scenario exchanges Lula for Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). The pessebist leads in a fragmented environment with 21.5%. Eduardo Bolsonaro appears glued to 20.7%, followed by Tarcisio (19%). White/null reaches 17.6%, Ratinho Júnior has 8.2%, falling 6%, undecided 3.7%and zema 3.3%.
When the governor’s name tested is Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT), he comes up with 20.9%, in a technical draw with Eduardo Bolsonaro (20.8%) and Tarcisio (19%). White/null reaches 17.1%, Mouse Junior marks 8.5%, falling 6.8%, indecisive 3.5%and zema 3.3%.
Second round
The survey indicates that, as the dispute has taught in direct confrontations, opposition oppositions began to overcome Lula, either within the margin of error or with more expressive advantage. The result contrasts with other institutes (Quaest, Datafolha, MDA and Atlas), who generally put the petista ahead and only point to a higher risk in clashes against Tarcisio de Freitas.
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In the scenario against former President Jair Bolsonaro, now ineligible and convicted, the retired captain leads with 46.1%, compared to 42% of Lula. White, null or no candidate total 11%, while 1% could not answer. Against Michelle, the picture is repeated: 45.6% to 41.7%. In front of Eduardo Bolsonaro, there is a technical draw – 43.1% for the deputy and 42.5% for Lula.
Tarcísio would beat Lula by 44.4% to 40.7%, with 13.5% whites/nulls and 1.4% undecided. Lula also appears behind Mouse Junior, by 42.4% to 40.5%. The petista, however, would still beat Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema.
In scenarios without Lula, the performance of the ruling field weakens. Tarcisio defeats Geraldo Alckmin by 42.9% to 32.8% and would expand the advantage over Fernando Haddad, by 45% to 28.8%.
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The survey was conducted through computer assisted telephone interviews with 2,000 Brazilian voters 16 years or older, between September 9 and 15, 2025. The survey has a margin of 2.2 percentage points, for more or less, and confidence index of 95%.
