Yes, but no. EITHER Yes, but not muchas the tonic has been every time that the European Union has to break ties with Israel. The European Commission presented on Wednesday one, a text that served as a reference to understand the relations between Tel Aviv and Brussels.
The Shadow of genocide In Gaza, word that the That is not yet to pronouncehas forced Europe to take action. But they arrive slowly, partial and with a Very long way still to cross before they see the light effectively.
Let us consider, then, this Wednesday and that so much tension is generating among the allies of Israel and in the very heart of the Netanyahu government.
Let’s start from the beginning: why that agreement matters so much
The commission speaks of him as “the Legal Base of Commercial Relations“Between the two parties, but it is that and much more. Subscribed by both in 1995 and in force since June 2000, offers the” adequate legal and institutional framework “for” the political dialogue and economic cooperation“, it continues. We would say that it is something like the Bible or the Torah, but to avoid outraged, let’s leave it that it is a fundamental text To understand the round trip between two key partners.
Modifying a single artulate coma greatly affects Israel, for whom the European Union is its Great Commercial Allied. With the data of 2022, Brussels represented the 28’8% of total trade with Tel Avivtherefore its main business route, even more than what is coming from the US. Comparatively, the Israeli impact on Europe is lesswith a contribution of 0’8% of trade, although the numbers take force through Israeli ties with the Mediterranean countries.
Why now
Someone could say ‘good question’. In Brussels they should answer it, especially after two years of sustained war and for arriving many months after the debate about the aforementioned text was opened. Because as legal, political and economic reference, any modification in its articles is a matter of state.
He already felt it Josep Borrell When, in the externalrs of his mandate as a high representative At the end of 2024raised the possibility of suspending the agreementProposal quickly rejected by the bulk of the EU.
Much later, already surpassed summer, the proposal left the mouth of the very Ursula von der Leyen, as the Gazatí Blood Gazatí became impossible to continue. It has been in September, almost a year later of the Borrell movement, when the EU has taken the step. Small, for now, but I pass.
In his defense of the text, the successor of Borrell, Kaja Kallashas justified the reaction of the European Union at a critical moment, given the proliferation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and especially the.
What has presented the EU
We talk about a small step because there is nothing in the proposal of the commission that calls to suspend as such the Association Agreement. Yes there are, however, space for tariffs, sanctions and other restrictions. A first ‘blow’.
The trade will be the main affected. While there is no commercial rupture itself, what Brussels call “have been modified”commercial preferences“With Tel Aviv, which will imply the imposition of tariffs to products that until now were exempt by virtue of the bilateral agreement. Nothing less than goods worth 5.8 billion euros. about 37 % of all trade with the Hebrew country.
The principle of “will be applied to all”MFN“, which defines the World Trade Organization and collects the applicable tariffs to all country with which the EU has not concluded a commercial agreement or it has been suspended.
What will be the products is something that remains locked in the offices of the EU, the effect on the weapons market is not known, but they have advanced that capital movements or customs cooperation will not be affected.
In case there is agreement between the twenty -seventhis change in commercial relations demands a Adaptation timeset in 30 daysto allow the transition and offer “clarity” to companies, investors and markets.
And what is it for European weapons? The first studies collected by Efe suggest that it could generate a plus of about 227 million per year on the trade of the past 2024, when Israel’s sales reached 15,900 million.
There is also space for Personalist sanctionsaimed at the two most ultras of the Netanyahu administration, not counting the prime minister, it is understood. Brussels has set their sights in the Finance and National Security Ministersthose already well known in Spain Bezalel Smotrich and Italy Ben-Givirso that they cannot enter into community territory and that their possible assets in the EU see frozen. The measure also extends to Seven Israeli settlersfor their violent behaviors, and ten Hamas political arm members.
Given the nature of the proposal, the unanimity of the twenty -seven will be needed so that the sanctions enter into force.
The cooperación It is the last ‘leg’ of the measures advanced on Wednesday, with the approach of bilateral except in cases of civil society initiatives and the Holocaust History Museum, Yad Vashem.
Thus, allocations for the Triennium 2025-2027 are suspended, in addition to the institutional cooperation or regional cooperation programs that had Israel as a beneficiary. Translated into a language that understands all, the commission quantifies it in a Tijeretazo of 14 million euroscounting the more than 4 already assigned and the nearly 9’5 to be assigned.
What Israel says
With Benjamin Netanyahu involved in his own intramurous judicial mess, he has been the Foreign Minister who has raised his voice to. In the words of Gideon set“Measures against Israel will be answered accordinglyand we hope not to resort to them. ”
For the head of the Hebrew diplomacy, Israel “will continue to fight, with the help of their friends in Europe, against attempts to damage it while it is immersed in an existential war.” And he adds that any action against Israel “It will harm the interests of Europe itself“.
Proposal made: And now, what?
The good thing for the commission is that the approval of commercial measures You don’t need of one – it can be affirmed – impossible unanimitybut it is enough to reach the call ‘qualified majority‘, Unlike what happens with sanctions.
This qualified majority translates into achieving the support of 55% of the Member States; that is, as little 15 countries of the 27 and have to represent at least the 65% of the EU population.
As of 2023 and with Eurostat data, the European Union was formed by just over 448 million inhabitants. Of the total, Germany represents 18’71% (84 million); France 15’09% (68 million); Italy 13’26% (59 million); Spain 10’60% (48 million) and Poland 8’47% (37 million). Only this big five Demographic would reach the required percentage, because it combines two thirds of the total population of the twenty -seven.
Between these and the remaining 22 members, the debate is served, known Historical reluctance of Germany to go against Israel or the Objections already raised by the Hungary of Viktor Orbán, in addition to the differences of nuances with other member states.
